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Hate Losing Money? READ THIS!

Hi,

Would you like a trading system that doubles, even triples your portfolio each year... and... would you like to do it with minimal losses?

I’d like to introduce you to a good friend of mine.

His name is Mark McMillan.

Over the last three years, he has systematically traded the major indices (DIA, QQQ and SPY)...and doubled, even tripled his returns.

There's something else about Mark you need to know. He hates losing money.

Who is Mark McMillan

And Why You Should

Pay Attention To Him

Mark's been a long-time subscriber to the Stock Barometer. He didn't show up on my radar until I started chatting with him over e-mail a few years back.

When I realized what he'd figured out about market behavior and reversals... I started harassing him to write for me.

Here's the deal with Mark. He's a history and economics major who got into software engineering, technology marketing and all sorts of diverse knowledge. At heart, he's a problem solver.

So in 2000, he decided he wanted to figure out how to practically never lose money in the market. To him, the pain of losing money outweighs the pleasure of making money any day.

After years of agony, heavy research and insane calculations... Mark's discovered exactly how to tell when a market is trending, trading and... when reversals are about to occur.

In 2007, he started putting it all to the test and writing The McMillan Portfolio.

What Happened Next May Astonish You

Here are the results of what happened when he started implementing his system:

2007

2008

2009

That's Just One Half Of It

Mark's use of behavioral economics in trading the major indices is only one half of what you'll get when you subscribe to The McMillan Portfolio.

Mark is also a reversal specialist who discovers undervalued stocks as they're just about to make a turnaround. He's got five positions in that portfolio right now at and he's about to reveal more.

Let me share some figures with you...

• Undervalue Play #1 - Mark entered this stock at $20 after it plunged from a lofty $77.61 high just mere months before. Today, Mark is sitting on 121.5% profits.

• Undervalue Play #2 - This stock had lost 72% of its value in five months. Mark courageously enters this stock at $12.50 and now sits on a 148.2% profit.

• Undervalue Play #3 - This one is good. 80% of its value decimated from September of 2008 to February of 2009. Mark's entry at $6 that month rewards him with a 318.5% profit today.

• Undervalue Play #4 - Mark pulls an absolute miracle here. His entry at $4.25 for this stock was twenty-four cents off from it's lowest low. Incidentally, this position is a 349.9% profit as of today.

OK. It's unfair to show you the positive without the negative. As I said many times before, Mark hates losing. He usually gets out of losing trades extremely quick. But he is holding on to one particular trade right now you should be aware of.

• Undervalue Play #5 - He's held this one since November of 2008. It's sitting at a minor loss right now. A whopping 1.4% loss. I hope that doesn't scare you off.

Mark Can Help You

Double, Even Triple

Your Account This Year

You've seen the performance numbers above. Mark HATES losing. And using his conservative trading strategy for the major indices (QQQ, SPY & DIA), he has helped his subscribers double their account every year since 2007. In the most volatile year of 2008, he nearly quadrupled his SPY trades... closing the year at a 277.63% return.

Mark is the only professional trader I know of on earth who's figured out when the market is trending or trading. He tells you what each of the major indices are doing every, single trading day.

If you trade the major index ETFs as he exactly prescribes, you'd get the same results he delivers.

Not only that...

What would it be worth to you... to know exactly if the market is bullish, bearing, trending or trading? How many trades did you get whipsawed out of this year? How many reversals did you miss?

Do you punish yourself by back dating trades you "could've" made? STOP. Seriously. With Mark's daily market prognosis, you'll know if it's safe or dangerous to bet on those more speculative trades you got on the side.

Listen. Mark's advisory is worth much more than the $18.95/month we charge. But because we believe in its value, we are offering you a trial 28 days for only $4.95.

If you are not blown away at how accurate Mark's calls are over the next 30 days, cancel. No questions asked, no hassles, no harm done. You will have spent less than a Venti at Starbucks.

Get your trial 28 days of The McMillan Portfolio now...

But wait, I'd like to throw in a bonus from myself...

I'll do everything I can to promote Mark's service here. So here's what I'll include in your subscription to The McMillan Portfolio today...

Mark's Stock Market Chat Room (Value $24.95/Month): Every Trading Day - from 9 A.M. Eastern to 4 pm, I Mark hops in to our online chat room for an hour and talk to whoever is there about trading methodologies, psychology, money management and trades to look out for on Monday morning.

It gets hot and heavy in there. Subscribers just love the energy and exchange of high value education. Will you join us?

If You Hate Losing Money,

And Want An Index Trading System

That Has At Least Doubled Every Year

For The Last Three Years...

You Need The McMillan Portfolio

Mark is on track to beating the DJI, SPX and NASD-100 again this year already. In his value portfolio, he is sitting on 187.3% of profits from trades he entered a year or so ago. He's about to call the tops on three other major indices.  Simply one of the best ETF portfolios out there.

Find out what they are so you can profit from them.  Subscribe to The McMillan Portfolio today.

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis

P.S. Did you hear about Goldman Sachs last week? Mark's got some interesting insights that could make you a lot of money.

More significant losses as China growth slows…

3/6/2012 9:08:28 AM

More significant losses as China growth slows…

China takes down growth target to 7.5% for 2012…

Recommendation:

Take no action.

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

- ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

- The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will.

- The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

- At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-”.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a  potential change in the BIAS.

- The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Short DIA at $125.39 on Jan 30, 2012

Long March 2012 DIA $130 PUTS at $220.00 per contract on Feb 22, 2012

Short QQQ at $59.88 on Jan 30, 2012

Long March 2012 QQQ $64 PUTS at $135.00 per contract on Feb 22, 2012

Long March 2012 QQQ $66 PUTS at $270.00 per contract on Feb 22, 2012

Short SPY at $130.51 on Jan 30, 2012

Long March 2012 SPY $137 PUTS at $255.00 per contract on Feb 22, 2012

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

Daily Trading Action

The major indexes opened modestly lower and then moved lower in unison for the first fifteen minutes before rising together for the next half hour.  From there, it was a dive down to morning lows with the Dow completing its move in a steep dive that lasted only fifteen minutes.  The S&P-500 also had a steep dive but bounce modestly before moving lower yet again and finding its bottom and hour later.

For the NASDAQ-100, it too entered a steep dive for those fifteen minutes but then continued to bleed lower through almost the entire morning rallying modestly at the end of the lunch hour before once again testing lower and only shaking off the bearishness in the final hour and fifteen minutes of the session.  The final half hour still saw selling for all three major indexes with the Dow finishing a one tenth of one percent lower, the S&P-500 finished four tenths of one percent lower and the NASDAQ-100 finished a bit more than one percent lower.  The Dow Jones Transport Index (IYT 91.52 -0.64) posted a fractional loss.  The Russell 2000 (IWM 80.34 +0.09) bounced one tenth on one percent.  The semiconductor index (SOX 409.65 -10.70)
slid 2.5%.  The Bank index (KBE 22.11 -0.18) lost most of one percent and closed below its 20-Day Moving Average (DMA) while the Regional Bank Index (KRE 26.60 -0.07) posted a more mild
loss.  The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 14.81 -0.06) also posted a fractional loss.

All equity indexes have a BULLISH BIAS and are in trading states but the  weakest are threatening to collapse into downtrend states.  While the major indexes continue to look relatively strong, the leading indexes (Dow Jones Transports, Russell-2000, and Semiconductor Index) and the Regional Bank and the Bank Index all sit below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  The
Transports even closed below their 50-DMA.

Long term bonds (TLT 116.22 -0.93) closed with a fractional loss closing back below their 20-DMA.  Trading volume was light with 703M shares traded on the NYSE and with light trading volume on the NASDAQ with 1.636B shares traded.

There were two economic reports released:

• Factory Orders (Jan) fell -1.0% versus an expected -1.9%
• ISM Services (Feb) came in at 57.3 versus an expected 56.0

Both reports were released a half hour into the session.  Sometimes it seems the bar gets set too low and you can fool some of the people all the time but not all of the people can be fooled all fo the time.  Since Factory Orders for December came in at +1.4% (revised upward from +1.1%) and ISM Services for January came in at 56.8, it seems the bar was set too low for expectations.  We believe market participants were not fooled by this and they ignored the beat as it seemed irrational to have set expectations so low.

The U.S. dollar slid one tenth of one percent and the Euro rose one tenth of one percent.  This was mostly the effect on other currencies in resource exporting economies as basic materials cratered.  New Zealand, Australia, and Canada’s currencies headed lower in response to the materials sell-off.  The sell-off was in response to commodities selling off.  As an example, copper prices dropped four percent.

The reason for the commodities sell-off was that China took down its official growth target for 2012 to just 7.5%, a reduction from 8%.  This is an attempt for China to reduce its housing bubble and to reduce the inflation that has become a priority more than growth.  China is in process of trying to redirect its economy to provide more wealth downstream so that more internal
consumers are created, moving away from the export dependent model it has followed for decades.

The yield for the 10-year note rose 1.5 basis points to close at 2.005. The price of the near term futures contract for a barrel of crude oil was nearly unchanged rising just two cents to close at $106.72.

Implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 18.05 +0.76) rose more than four percent and the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 19.57 +1.34) rose seven percent.

Market internals were negative with decliners leading advancers 3:2 on the NYSE and by 6:5 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 7:3 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.15 to close at 1.20. The equity put/call ratio rose +0.11 to close at 0.73.

Conclusion/Commentary

Monday’s trading saw all equity indexes we regularly monitor move lower, with the noted exception of the Russell-2000 which gained one tenth of one percent.  Taking a look at Apple (AAPL 533.16 -12.02) shows a move lower of more than two percent after it tested support at the same level it had pulled back from in mid-February and overcame in late February.  No technical damage has yet been done to AAPL but the set-up is now there for a more significant pull-back to the largest public company (by market cap) in the world.  It appears that the
formal unveiling of the IPAD 3, scheduled for Wednesday, is not enough to continue floating the tech darling higher.

An interesting pattern has appeared for the Dow’s ETF (DIA).  Three dojis have appeared in consecutive order.  A doji appears when price for the open and the close are the same or very close and intraday trading ranges above and below that closing price.  In particular, when price drops on the third doji and the security is in an uptrend, this is generally a sign that the bulls have grown tired and a pull back is likely.

Tech slid significantly as worries over companies that assemble products in China will see costs rise as China undergoes a transformation that sees incomes rise for lower and middle income workers.  This affected not only AAPL but semiconductor companies with the Semiconductor Index breaking down through the neckline of a well-known head and shoulders pattern.

With the NASDAQ-100 leading the pull-back and finally following the lead of the other leading indexes, downside action could finally get started.  While the flooding of global markets with cheap money is still in effect and a liquidity fueled advance is still possible, some sort of pull-back over concerns of global growth (recessions are likely in many European countries), the likely default of Greece over its debts, and eventually the United States having to come to grips with its growing deficits when cuts in spending become automatic as partisan deadlock continues over budget cuts.

We will continue to monitor the behavior of market participants and welcome a sell off as our puts and short positions will provide ample gains if the major indexes can break down below their 20-DMAs.  Thus far, that has not occurred but we are likely to confront those levels in Tuesday’s trading.  Stay tuned.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:
We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

Daily Trading Action

The major indexes opened lower and immediately began fighting their way higher.  The bears were able to regain control by late morning after the NASDAQ-100 moved back into positive territory but the major indexes were all slammed down until the bulls, once again, took charge with a bit more than two hours remaining.  The march higher was uninterrupted for the remainder of the session save a scary dip that occurred with one half hour left to trade but the bulls fought even this off to leave the major indexes to closed with modest losses closing well above where they opened.  The semiconductor index (SOX 414.54 +1.45) posted a fractional gain as did the Russell 2000 (IWM 78.60 +0.45).  The Dow Jones Transport Index (IYT 92.88 -0.52) posted a fractional loss.  The Bank index (KBE 21.59 -0.14) posted a fractional loss while the Regional Bank
Index (KRE 26.35 +0.03) posted a modest gain.

The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 14.17 -0.02) posted a modest loss.  All equity indexes we regularly report on are above their respective 200-DMAs.  All equity indexes have a BULLISH BIAS.  Long term bonds (TLT 116.45 +0.21) posted a modest gain.  It shifted to a downtrend state and shifted to a BEARISH BIAS.  Trading volume was light on both the NYSE with 690M shares traded and on the NASDAQ with 1.597B shares traded.

There were no economic reports released.  The first economic reports for the week are due out on Wednesday.

Materials were unchanged while four economic sectors moved higher including Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Health Care +0.1%, Tech +0.1%, and Industrial +0.1%.  The other five economic sectors in the S&P-500 moved lower led by Telecom -1.3%.

The U.S. dollar rose a tenth of one percent.  The Euro fell almost imperceptibly.

The yield for the 10-year note fell one basis point to close at 2.06. The price of the near term futures contract for a barrel of crude oil rose thirty-seven cents to close at $98.95.

Implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 18.91 +0.24) rose just over one percent as did the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 19.74 +0.32).

Market internals were positive with advancers leading decliners 6:5 on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 5:4 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio was nearly unchanging rising +0.02 to close at 1.85.  The equity put/call ratio was also nearly unchanged falling -0.02 to close at 0.63.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday’s trading showed the resilience of this market as the liquidity fueled rally continues.  While there are a number of reasons to doubt this rally (we have regularly stated our concerns), the market continues to move higher as bulls continue to see the glass as half full.  The bear arguments are being heard and some market participants are voting with their feet and exiting long positions or adopting short positions.

Implied volatility did not increase much but had been elevated at the open.  When the bulls stepped in to buy, implied volatility fell back to almost where it had closed after the previous session.  Long-term bond priced moved up modestly in what appears to be a bounce in a down trend.

The bounce was from oversold conditions and the weakness of the bounce suggests more downside ahead.  If that money flows out of the bond markets into the equities markets it will support a continued rally.

The market appears to be approaching a top but wants to fool as many participants as possible.  We believe that those participants that jumped in early into short positions will get squeezed out of them.  Once they are back to cash or even long, the market will probably roll over catching the majority of traders out of position.  While many will claim they saw the top coming, the key is to trade it.

Key levels to watch for potential breakouts are as follows:

• DIA $129 – $131 would signal a new high above 2011 to a new high above 2008
• QQQ has already broken above even its 2007 highs
• SPY $144 – $157.50 would signal a break above the 2008 and 2007 highs

We are still looking to add “insurance at a reasonable price” for our long positions.  We are looking at the
following strike prices and would like buy “in the money” puts expiring in May/June.

• DIA $126 or $127 on a nice bounce
• QQQ $60 or perhaps even $61
• SPY $131 or $132 on a bounce

If the market cooperates, we will achieve those positions as early as Wednesday, and will put out an intraday note to inform you of our entry levels and prices paid.  The key is to secure a reasonable price for the options that will insulate us from downside risk of a significant move lower.  We will adopt short positions when we believe we can actually see a top put in.

Stocks waver at mixed close…

1/9/2012 9:04:30 AM

Stocks waver at mixed close…

Friday closes as a mixed bag…

Recommendation:

Take no action.

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

- ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

- The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore  Support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will.

- The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance. The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

- At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-”. When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

- The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $122.48

Long QQQ at $56.01

Long SPY at $126.17

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

Daily Trading Action

The major indexes opened higher and moved lower for the first hour of trading.  The S&P-500 and Dow moved more convincingly lower with the NASDAQ-100 moving only modestly into negative territory while the Dow and S&P-500 moved more than a half of one percent into negative territory before all three reversed to move high by the top of the hour.  That move continued through the morning reversing just before noon but none of three would again make it back down to their morning lows.  All three again reversed at around 1:30pm but by 2:00pm the Dow and S&P-500 were still below their morning highs while the NASDAQ-100 hit its intraday.  The final two hours were spent sliding into the close leaving the Dow and S&P-500 in negative territory while the NASADAQ-100 managed a fractional gain. The semiconductor index (SOX 375.22 +1.05) posted a modest gain.  The Russell 2000 (IWM 74.80 -0.18) posted a modest loss.  The Dow Jones Transport Index (IYT 90.31 -0.11) also posted a modest loss.  The Bank index (KBE 20.79 -0.01) closed flat.  The Regional Bank Index (KRE 25.53 -0.10) posted a fractional loss as did the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 13.40 -0.08).  The Bank, Regional Bank, and Finance Sector ETFs are all in uptrend states as are the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ-100.  The other equity indexes are in trading states.  All but the Semiconductor Index have a BULLISH BIAS.
Long term bonds (TLT 118.73 +0.93) posted a fractional gain but remains in a trading state and retains its BULLISH BIAS but continues to warn of a potential change. Trading volume was light on the NYSE (710M shares traded) and on the NASDAQ (1.470B shares traded).

There were five economic reports released:

• Non-farm Payrolls (Dec) came in at 200K versus an expected 150K
• Non-farm Private Payrolls (Dec) came in at 212K versus an expected 170K
• Unemployment Rate (Dec) came in at 8.5% versus an expected 8.7%
• Hourly Earnings (Dec) rose +0.2% as expected
• Average Workweek (Dec) came in at 34.4 hours versus an expected 34.3 hours

All five reports were released one hour before the open.  The surprisingly good jobs reports helped support the bullish case but it wasn’t enough to overshadow continued concerns regarding Europe.

The U.S. dollar rose one third of one percent but appears to have topped providing a high probability reversal signal.  The Euro collapsed nearly six tenths of one percent but may be bottoming here.

The yield for the 10-year note fell three basis points to close at 1.96. The price of the near term futures contract for a barrel of crude oil fell twenty-five cents to close at $101.56.

Implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 20.63 -0.85) fell four percent as did the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 20.52 -0.88).  Both achieved a new six-month closing low.

Market internals were mixed with decliners leading advancers 9:8 on the NYSE and by 5:4 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 2:1 on the NYSE while up volume led down volume by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.29 to close at 1.38.  The equity put/call ratio was unchanged at 0.62.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday was inconclusive but would generally be regarded as bearish.  We view it as more neutral as market participants wait to see if earnings exceed expectations as U.S. economic reports have.  Alcoa (AA 19.16 -0.20) reports on Monday after the close to unofficially kick off earnings season.

With such an impressive beat on the jobs reports, it should give the bears pause in their urge to sell-off U.S. equities.  An expected rally in the Euro might also support upward movement by U.S. equities in the near term.