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Market Vane Bullish Concensus

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Stock Market Fear/Greed Index

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cumulative tick index

Good afternoon Traders,
 
Holiday trade is always a little boring.  And writing about it every day is even more boring!  So today we’ll give you
our view on the market from this morning’s Daily Stock Barometer – which has been in publication over 10 years!  Not too bad when you
think of all the newsletters that have come and gone…
 
Bu if you find yourself with a little extra time on your hands taking all that leftover vacation time so you don’t lose it, I
suggest taking a trial to any of Ian Mitchell’s trading services – covering Stocks, Forex or Futures.  When you subscribe, you’ll also get added to
Ian Mitchell’s Successful Trader – educational series which includes the following:
 
  • Stock Trading Manual
  • Getting Started in Forex
  • Forex Trading Manual
  • Getting Started in Futures
  • Futures Trading Manual
 
The Manuals teach you how to follow along with his trading services.  The “Getting Started” in Futures and
Forex will instruct you how to get into trading those markets. 
 
How do you get access to all these documents?
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1 when signing up.
 
Here’s this morning’s Daily Stock Barometer:
——————————————————-
Holiday Trade12/23/2014 8:00:36 AM
 
Good morning Traders,
 
Given the time of year, I don’t expect much movement in price action.  What I do expect is the market to
create some inefficient action – underlying price action are internals and sentiment that could get out of alignment with price action.  This
inefficiency will likely resolve as we enter 2015.  At least that’s what we’ve been calling for in our
forecast…
 
2014 forecast
 
I don’t like showing the above without showing it’s inverted counterpart:
 
forecast
 
When a reversal approaches, we look to these dates for a counter move.  Then we combine them with the signals from
our other cycles (i.e. the 20 week cycle low due 10/1.) 
On other extremes:
 
breadth
 
We monitor two time frames because x% of reversals in the time frames we trade fall into these time frames, which may
differ for every indicator.
On indicator trends:
 
nasdaq cumulative breadth
 
In this view of sentiment, we do see individuals pushing back into the market here.  This normally happens around
tops – though we’re no where near at an extreme.
 
sentiment
 
More on sentiment:
 
sentiment
 
On a cautious note, this indicator is still below zero, which means our crash call is still on through year
end…
 
McLellan Oscillator
 
What could derail our call for a year end top?  If we see weaker action come in before year end.  Or if
bonds start dropping more.  Both could bring fuel and liquidity into the market and push us up to a March or April high.  But the odds of
that are lower at this point.
 
Regards,
 
 
———————————————————–
 
Again, if you want to take advantage of the $1 trial of Ian Mitchel’s Stock Trader and free offer guides – take your trial now and by the
new year, you’ll be considering trading forex and futures.
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1 when signing up.
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
PS –   CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP  and don’t forget to USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1
when signing up to get your $1 trial and 5 trading guides.

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more:

Our 2014 Stock Market Forecast

Good morning Traders,
 
Welcome to this special edition of our weekly newsletter, which comes out following the Monthly Jobs Data.  It appears the
economy is picking up even more steam adding 321k non farm jobs versus a 230k estimate.  Traders are going to start getting nervous about a
rate increase.  Remember, the market looks ahead several months, so as good as things may seem, it always looks good at tops.  I’ll share
with you two pieces of research we’re focusing on right now that you need to consider…
 
But first, I want to share with you an article/trade from Gregory Clay, Editor of our Easy Money Options Income Newsletter, who continues
to rack up gains as the market drifts higher.  We’ve also had a few questions and comments about his service that I want to share.
 
Question from Frank T: What size account is needed to trade this service?
 
Response from Gregory:
 
Hello Frank,
 
for the purpose of utilizing any of the trading services there are no account size limits. For example if you wish to limit
your exposure until you are more comfortable, you can just trade a few contracts. This might use $1,000 of your brokerage account balance as the margin to
maintain the trade. Any account size limitations for trading options depends on your brokers’ requirements not our trading services.
 
To demonstrate trading strategy we typically display 10 option contracts which usually requires a maximum $5,000 margin
requirement in your brokerage account. Again, this is just an amount we use illustrate trading strategy and we emphasis to subscribers that they only need to
trade the amount of contracts they are comfortable with. The strategy and ROI is not affected by the number of option contracts subscribers decide to
trade.
 
I appreciate your inquiry and let me know if you need additional information.
 
——————————-
 
So as you can see, it’s easy to get started and you can participate at the level you want, based on your portfolio
size. 
 
How do you sign up?
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE EMO1 when signing up.
 
——————————-
 
Here’s Gregory’s most recent closed position alert:
 
Trade Alert11/20/2014 6:26:23 PM
Market Summary
Your October 15th Easy Money Options Income (EMOI) analyzed the Russell 2000 index ETF (NYSE: IWM) and said
“…
the Russell 2000 index price may have formed a bottom and is
bouncing…the daily chart is flashing a technical candlestick bullish reversal sign…as highlighted, downward momentum has substantially
dissipated and actually trying to turn bullish…
additional confirmation of a possible trend reversal…the Russell 2000 index is
oversold at a level it has not been at in years and subsequently the price is starting bounce
higher…”
As you can see in the updated chart below, the Russell 2000 index ETF performed as advertised with the price surging higher and presenting an
opportunity to cash out of our November expiration month bull put spread.
 
 
 
Exit Plan
The
OPENING TRADE down below was setup and published in the October 15
th Easy Money Options Income (EMOI). A comment from the ‘Exit Plan’ in the
article
“…
if it is a week or so prior
to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid or decide to just let the contracts expire
worthless…”
Standard
November options stop trading tomorrow. As displayed in the CLOSING TRADE below, unless the Russell 2000 index ETF has a historical price crash
, we will let all the options
expire worthless and retain all the money received.
Click on the
link below to see the opening trade article
 
Easy Money Options Income
 
Approx. gain
$770 (Excludes commissions and
fees
)
Projected gain
is an approx. 15.00% return on the margin requirement
 
 
Regards,
 
Gregory Clay
Options
Strategist
 
———————————————–
 
So as you can see, Gregory walks you through trades, getting you in and out for consistent profits.
 
I also wanted to share an email I received from one of Gregory’s subscribers:
 
Carl,
 
Just wanted to thank you for providing such outstanding services such as Gregory Clay’s Option
Advisories.
 
At one point in my career I was very successful in selling option premium making a comfortable income simply allowing premium
to drip away.  Then I thought I would take more risk and learn directional trading using futures contracts, I guess it was the daily
thrill. 
 
While being marginally successful in applying a very rigid structured approach complete with trading plan, much like Ian’s
futures advisory, I could never make the income stick in net trading P&L that selling option premium provided.
 
I decided to return to my roots when I received your email regarding Gregory Clay’s services – having been a member many years
ago.
Wow – what results I have obtained using Gregory Clay’s option advisories…back to my roots with credit spreads my 1st week
with the weekly premium service and three trades later resulted in a 12% return on my margin..!
 
Golf Clap – again, slow and patient is the way to trade…I guess when you hit the age of 60 you finally learn
 
Again, many thanks for your hard work – Have a happy Thanksgiving…
 
Charles S
 
——————————————-
 
Ok – what about the stock market?  This indicator suggests a change in trend is about to develop:
 
Cumulative Money Flow
 
This indicator suggests that institutions are preparing for a significant move lower.  This sometimes can have an inverse effect
of lifting stock prices, which would line up with bullish activity into year end…
 
Easy Money Options Income
 
The market will eventually correct, but we may need more complacency and less positioning for downside before prices give it
up.  So stay tuned.
 
In the interim, you can be profiting 10+ percent on a monthly basis with Gregory’s service.  And you can participate
with a small amount of money.
 
How do you sign up?
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE EMO1 when signing up.
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
PS – Gregory updates all his trades, and publishes his performance on each position, and then updates his performance every 6 months so
you are never left guessing.  Do you want to make more consistent returns in the market?   CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP  and don’t forget to USE DISCOUNT CODE EMO1
when signing up to get your $1, 1 month trial.

For more charts, sign up for our free weekly newsletter here. 

Good morning Traders,

From our weekend note to clients. 

Click here to get more of our indicators and sign up for our free weekly newsletter.

http://www.stockbarometer.com/freereports.aspx

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

Cumulative new highs and new lows

There are certain signals from the market that shouldn’t be ignored.

This is one of them.

There are several other indicators which we follow that haven’t turned lower yet – but if they do, look out below.   The state of the market is changing and if you want to be in front if it, visit www.stockbarometer.com and subscribe to the service that best suits your needs, whether you’re an index ETF trader, Options Trader or stocks…

Money Flow Warning

Good morning Traders,

We’ve updated our forecast for the stock market – this is our note to morning clients where we flipped our model to show the potential for some choppy markets ahead.  To read the full report, visit www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for the Daily Stock Barometer:

stock market forecast

stock market timing

www.stockbarometer.com

AAII BULLS

Good Friday afternoon traders,

Here is a chart from this morning’s Daily Stock Barometer.  We’ve been watching the fact that as this market hasn’t topped, this data reflected that many didn’t adopt a bullish posture.  With the AAII data, there are three pieces, Bulls, Bears and Neutral.  The number of those neutral on the market was at a relative high.  However, the last two weeks have seen finally seen that number shift from neutral to bullish.  With more bulls, we’re more likely to finally be approaching a top.

To get the next update visit www.stockbarometer.com

Bulls step in to force markets higher…
4/29/2014 8:53:35 AM
Print View

Bulls step in to force markets higher…

Bears mount challenge and are defeated…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 stock market trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought shares for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: March 5, 2014 $0.98, December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Long SDRL at $33.50 on March 21, 2014 (Shares were put to us when options expired.  We were paid $1.50 per share when we sold those options and bought the shares for $35.00 each.

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

Equities gapped up at the open then sold off to close the opening gap in the first fifteen minutes.  The bulls then stepped in to drive prices even higher than the gap up open for forty-five minutes before the bears lowered the boom.  The smack down lasted until around 1:30pm forcing the leading indexes to be more than one percent lower than Friday’s close and off more than two percent from intraday highs.  The Dow and S&P-500 were never down more than fractionally and all three major indexes closed fractionally higher where they had opened.  The Dow and S&P-500 closed above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) while the NASDAQ-100 remains below its 20- and 50-DMAs.  This left behind three doji candlesticks which signifies uncertainty in the markets.  Given the pattern from Friday and Monday, it also signifies a likely bottom.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 568.55 -3.64) closed fractionally lower as did the Russell 2000 (IWM 110.96 –0.65).  The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 135.59 +0.00) closed flat.  The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.72 21.72 -0.13) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 38.49 -0.29) closed fractionally lower while the Bank Index (KBE 31.90 -0.32) was off a full percent due to Bank of America (BAC 14.95 -1.00) collapsing when they reported they has mis-calculated four billion dollars.  The bank announced that they would not be able to raise the dividend from one cent to five cents and they would not be able to buy back stock.  Longer Term Bonds (TLT 110.79 -0.54) posted a fractional loss as it appears to have put in a top.  Trading volume was average with 821M shares traded on the NYSE.  Trading volume on the NASDAQ was heavy with 2.330B shares traded. 

There was a single economic report of interest released:

  • Pending Homes Sales (Mar) rose +3.4% versus an expected +1.0% rise

The report was released a half hour after the open.  February’s Pending Homes Sales was revised to -0.5% versus the previously reported -0.8%.

Other than Bank of America’s four billion dollar mistake, market participants continue to watch the situation in Ukraine as Putin continues to threaten military action.  Western nations continue to isolate Russia with economic sanctions after their illegal annexation of the Crimea from Ukraine.  While it can undermine the wealth of the Russian elite and push Russia into a recession, the West is still missing the point as Putin is popular with the Russian people in Russia.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.99 -0.47) lost two percent and Gold (GLD 124.88 -0.55) posted a fractional loss.  Both GDX and GLD closed below their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.      

Apple (AAPL 594.09 +22.15) soared four percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 34.68 -0.09) posted a fractional loss.  It now trades above its 20-DMA but below its 50- and 200-DMAs and is in a trading state.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th and bought shares at $35.43.  The stock is now trading ex-dividend for $0.98.  The shares were put to us at $35.00 less the $1.50 per share we were paid for the puts, so we have an effective price of $33.50. 

The U.S. dollar fell one tenth of one percent while the Euro rose a like amount.     

The yield for the 10-year rose six basis points to close at 2.73.  The price of a barrel of crude oil rose twenty-four cents to close at $100.84.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 13.97 -0.09) closed relatively flat and remains below its 20-, 50, and 200-DMAs.  Implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 18.74 +0.15) rose most of one percent and remains well above its 200-DMA and just below its 20-DMA.    

Market internals were mixed with advancers leading decliners 11:10 on the NYSE while decliners led advancers 5:3 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 4:4 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.40 to close at 0.90.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.02 to close at 0.69

Conclusion/Commentary

Monday saw volume increased as the bears attacked and the bulls counterattacked to lift the major indexes.  The other leading indexes and the financials still looked bad, however, so the bulls are not out of the woods on this yet.  We remain long as we monitor trading on Tuesday.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Good morning Traders,

Here’s an update from our morning update:  Please note our new service options at www.stockbarometer.com

cumulative breadth

To see how to incorporate this into your trading, visit www.stockbarometer.com

Good morning Traders,

One of the most basic relationships is shown in the chart below:

stocks and bonds

To learn how we repositioned our advice, visit www.stockbarometer.com – you can access our research with a subscription to ANY of our services.

Hello Traders,

I hope you’re weekend went well. There is one trade this week. We are selling out of (HIHO) Highway Holdings and buying into (BORN) China New Borun Corp.

 Click here to learn more.

Reminder On How To Use The System:

1 Buy 5 positions on Monday’s Open.

2 Hold them through the weekend.

3 We have applied a money management system to the portfolio to prevent large losses using stops, so wait for the weekend email before doing anything.

4 Once the new email comes, make the necessary trades.

This system is an easy to follow stock portfolio plan. It was built for large gains and limited losses using a money management overlay.

Here are the Stocks for the week March 24th-March 28th

(GURE) Gulf Resources Inc

(AMCF) Andatee China Marine Fuel Services Corp

(APT) Alpha Pro Tech Ltd

(ONP) Orient Paper

(BORN) China New Borun Corp

Our Hot Pick for this week is (BORN) China New Borun Corp. BORN is a beverage company that produces and distributes corn based edible alcohol. Its year over year quarterly revenue growth was 30.7% with a 7.24 trailing P/E and a current 0.22 Price/Sales and 0.32 Price/Book ratios.

The stock is up over 42.8% for the year. The stock has been volatile with large upswings. It has recently entered into another upswing offering a nice opportunity to buy. The stock has been well over both its 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages since mid February.

Happy Trading,

David Cohne

Good morning traders,

Here’s the long and the short of it.  When a market is selling off, there will be attempts at forming bottoms.  We’re seeing the bounce off a bottom and obviously the market can do one of 3 things – 1) continue to bounce, 2) test lows 3) break lows. 

We use data to answer those questions.  First – let’s look at price action.

s&p and Nasdaq futures

Technically, the trend is lower.  So vote #1 is for the markets to at least test the lows.

Second is cumulative equity money flow.  We’ve seen a turn lower which CAN lead to a weaker market period.  This is the big #, not the ex ETF #.  Ex ETFs, it is not turning down yet.

cumulative money flow

So vote #2 is for the markets to break lows…

Keeping up the money flow theme – here’s bond money flow:

bonds money flow

This is technically bullish.  The size of the bond market compared to the flow suggests that flow is merely a sentiment gage.  So now with money flowing strongly back into Bonds, it suggests bonds are topping, and can fuel the markets rally WHEN they start to sell off.

Focusing in on sentiment, here’s #4:

sentiment

One characteristics of a sell off is increasing fear.  So the fear is actually growing even as the markets bounce.  This is bullish and means if we get a sell off, then the fuel in the market coming from this measure of sentiment will be closer to a level where we can see a bounce.

And finally, the barometer.  We’ve been in Sell Mode, looking for the markets to move lower into 2/5 and expecting a bounce into next week – but still a bounce in a downtrend.  The markets playing along with our forecast, so I expect more sideways action until the market resolves in a stronger capitulation where we can expect a larger bounce.

If you’re new to our article and new to us – welcome.  We’re in our 10th year of publishing our findings, trades and research and welcome any feedback you may have. 

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions: Sell  PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 48.5

                         Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 24.5 or Better                    

My service is typically a 10-position limit service.  What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account.  Example:  If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position.  So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.  Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things.  There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on.  That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash.  There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving.  That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets.  Does not happen often.

Remember this is a 10-position account .  We now have 4-positions on.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Un-bold is last week’s commentary.  Bold is this week’s commentary.

Stock Market ? 

We are Long one Stock Fund PRN ( Dynamite Industrials )  I am going to keep this on a short leash as I do not have a lot of confidence that the Stock Market can hold onto gains here.  I feel the economy is getting Bullish but prices are already baked in.  Try to close it out for a Short Term Profit. Look for a Trading market . Sell Rallies and Buy Breaks    

Energy ?

We are out of the Oil Market at this time but we will be looking for a good entrance to get back in.  Oil might of bottomed here.  Starting to look a little closer here.

This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength.

 By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here.  Buy USL at the Market.

Just when you think the getting’s good.  They pull the rug out.

Metals ???    

Throw away Gold and Silver Wait for a possible January bottom

Has a bottom been established.  That is possible.  Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid.  This is no time for heroes, you go first.  That is the way I feel.  Not sure that I want to be that hero

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down.  The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund

We might be there.  Buy TBT at the Market.  We know where interest rates are going now

We hung on too long.  Now we sit through a nasty correction.  Slowing economy driving rates lower again.  Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term.  Thick or Thin.

Currencies ?

            Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market.  We had a good outside week to the upside.  It could be time to move on this. 

A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan.  Might as well join the party.  We are now back in. 

Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here

Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation.  Our Dollar is getting hit.

Lots of volatility here.

Commodities ?      

            Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week

 Current Long Portfolio

PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 47.5                                   It closed at 47.9

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43                                                        It closed at 40.6

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9                                      It closed at 75.4

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41                                                   It closed at 42.9

Current Short Portfolio:

None

Recently Closed Positions

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Thank You

If you want to contact me send me an e-mail  bill@stockbarometer.com