The bulls get ambushed

All of Wednesday’s gains lost and then some…

 

Recommendation:         Take no action.

 

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Stock Market Trends:


ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short
positions.


The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and
resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it
will. 


The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an
ETF position.  If the BIAS is
Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short
trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF
trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market
is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.


At
Risk is
generally neutral represented by “-“. 
When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the
BIAS
.


The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the
Chartists community in determining the relative health of the
markets.

 

Best
ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long
DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long
SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

 

Click
here to learn more about my services and for our
ETF Trend
Trading
.

 

Value
Portfolio:

Long
SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012
(Shares
were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold
those options and bought shares for $35.00 each.)  We have collected dividends: June 10,
2014 $1.00, March 5, 2014 $0.98, December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013
$0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $6.28
in dividend payments.

Short
FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long
UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short
FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long
SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Long
SDRL at $33.50 on March 21, 2014
(Shares
were put to us when options expired. 
We were paid $1.50 per share when we sold those options and bought the
shares for $35.00 each.)   We
have collected dividends: June 10, 2014 $1.00.

 

We
publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member,
sign up by clicking here:
Free
Stock Market Newsletter

 

Equity indexes were rocked with
losses on Thursday.  After a
modestly lower open, equities plunged lower through the morning and began
bouncing into the noon hour.  The
major indexes renewed their plunge lower, albeit modestly and finished at or
very near their lows.  All of them
saw losses of more than 1.5% with the NASDAQ-100 losing two percent.  Other equity indexes generally had
smaller percentage losses as they recovered modestly through the afternoon.  Still, all equity indexes we monitor
closed below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) with the S&P-500, Russell-2000 (IWM 110.13 -1.89), the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 149.95
-2.13), the Bank Index (KRE 32.05
-0.45), and the Regional Bank Index
(KRE 38.09 -0.58) closing below their respective 50-DMAs.  Only the Russell-2000 is in a downtrend
state and it is the only equity index with a BEARISH BIAS at this time.  Longer Term Bonds (TLT 116.17 +1.36)
added more than one percent and closed above its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  It remains in a trading state and
maintains its BEARISH BIAS.  Trading
volume increased but remained below average with 737M shares traded on the NYSE.  Trading volume on the NASDAQ increased
to average with 1.914B shares
traded. 

 

There
were four economic reports of interest released:

·       
Initial
Jobless Claims for last week came in at 293K versus an expected
300K

·       
Initial
Jobless Claims for last week came in at 2.439M versus an expected
2.70M

·       
Durable
Goods Orders (Aug) fell -18.2% versus an expected -16.3%
fall

·       
Durable
Orders ex-transportation (Aug) came in at 504K versus an expected
435K

The
first report was released hours before the open while the last report was
released a half hour into the session.

 

Apple
(AAPL 97.87 -3.88) plunged -3.8%. 
AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five
percent of the S&P-500. 

 

Seadrill
Limited

(SDRL 26.97 -0.71) added to its losses as it attempts to find a bottom among
significant market angst.  We are
looking for SDRL to muster a rally attempt but we have seen no definitive sign
of a bottom yet.  SDRL is in a
downtrend state and closed below its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts
for $150 at the open on Feb 18th, 2014 and bought shares at
$35.43.  The stock is now trading
ex-dividend for $2.98 of total dividends. 
The shares were put to us at
$35.00 less the $1.50 per share we were paid for the puts, so we have an
effective price of $33.50.

 

The
yield for the 10-year treasuries fell six basis points to close at 2.51.  The price of a barrel of crude oil fell
twenty-seven cents to close at $92.53.  

 

The
implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 15.64 +2.37) soared eighteen percent
to close well above its 200-DMA and near its August high.  The implied volatility for the
NASDAQ-100 (VXN 18.12 +2.97) soared nineteen percent to close at its highest
level since April.

 

Market
internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 5:1 on the NYSE and by
4:1 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led
up volume 11:1 on the NYSE and by 8:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.21 to
close at 1.00.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.14 to
close at 0.77.

 

Conclusion/Commentary

 

Thursday
was a wake-up call for complacent bulls. 
The buy the dip crowd lost all of Wednesday’s gains and then some.  Is this the start of a larger move
lower?  That is difficult to
say.  With such an extreme one day
move, generally a counter move occurs before the market can continue so we would
be looking for a bounce on Friday. 
We will maintain our current positions until we see this play out on
Friday.      

 

We
hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to
mark@stockbarometer.com.   

We have been warning investors about a large more lower in 2014.  The question is if we see it in Q2, or Q4.  This chart suggests we are close:

ECRI

Click on the image to learn more…

Bulls continue buying…

2/21/2014 8:50:06 AM

Bulls S&P-500 back in position to challenge highs…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought them for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Short SDRL March ’14 $35.00 puts for $1.50 per share

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then moved lower for the initial half hour before reversing and moving sharply higher.  That moved continued more gradually through the session with the final hour seeing mixed trade with the NASDAQ-100 looking relatively stronger at that time but all thre major indexes sold off in the final fifteen minutes seeing all of them close with fractional gains and not too far off of the day’s highs.  The Dow was able to rejoin the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 by closing above its 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  The Bank Index (KBE 31.84 +0.09) closed with a fractional gain and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 37.84 +0.01) closed flat.  Both closed below their 20- and 50-DMAs but the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 129.94 +1.97) moved back above its 20-DMA and sits just below its 50-DMA.  The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.44 +0.06) closed with a fractional gain and remains below its 50-DMA.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 564.06 +4.04) closed nicely higher as did the Russell-2000 (IWM 115.30 +1.23).  Both remain above their 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  The NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor Index are the only ones in uptrend states and they have a BULLISH BIAS.  The other equity indexes are in trading states and have warned of a shift from BEARISH to a BULLISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.11 -0.26) closed modestly lower and remains below its 20- and 200-DMAs but above its 50-DMA.  It is in a trading state and maintains its BULLISH BIAS but warned of a potential shift to a BEARISH BIAS.  Trading volume remained light with 672M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was average with 1.952B shares traded.

In addition to the crude oil inventory report, there were six economic reports of interest released:

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 336K versus an expected 335K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.981M versus an expected 2.973M
  • CPI (Jan) rose +0.1% versus an expected +0.2% rise
  • Core CPI (Jan) rose +0.1% as expected
  • Philadelphia Fed Index (Feb) came in at -6.3 versus an expected +7.4
  • Leading Economic Indicators (Jan) rose +0.3% versus an expected +0.4% rise

The first four reports were released and hour before the open.  The other two were released a half hour into the session.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 26.67 +1.04) added four percent.  It closed on its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) and remains above its 200-DMA.  The price of gold rose by one percent.

Apple (AAPL 531.15 -6.22) fell another one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 36.44 +0.17) rose fractionally but has not yet been able to close above its 20-DMA.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open and bought shares at $35.43.  We believe that SDRL is poised to break higher here but must break definitively above its 20-DMA to really get started.

The U.S. dollar rose a tenth of one percent while the Euro fell a like amount.  We believe that move will continue.

The yield for the 10-year rose two basis points to close at 2.75.  The price of a barrel of crude oil fell fifty-six cents to close at $102.75.  The U.S. government reported that crude oil inventories rose by +973K barrels last week.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.79 -0.71) slid nearly five percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.91 -0.41) fell nearly three percent.  Both the VIX and the VXN remain above their respective 200-DMAs, but not by much. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 2:1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 3:1 on the NYSE and by 4:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.02 to close at 0.89.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.03 to close at 0.58.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday was all about the bulls continuing to buy and the light trading volume continues.  The Semiconductor Index achieved a new multi-year high while the NASDAQ-100 and the S&P-500 are poised to break out into a new multi-year high as well.  The S&P-500, in particular, looks like it wants to challenge the 1850 level as it closed at 1839.78.  That is the level of its recent highs and marks an all time high.  The Bank Indexes continue to look anemic but are still above their 200-DMAs.  Transports roared back but are also relatively weak.  The Russell-2000 still have a bit of catching up to do and the Dow has not yet shaken off the weakness it has shown all year.  We will remain long while we wait to see if the bulls can push the S&P-500 to a new all time high.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Dow continues as weak sister…

NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor Index reach multi-year highs…

 Stock Market Trends

Recommendation:  Take no action.   

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and moved higher in the first half hour before rolling over and diving almost the rest of the morning.  Fifteen minutes before the lunch hour, equities began to rally.  By 2:00pm, the rally played out and the bears drove prices back down toward their intraday lows.  That move failed to reach the lows and the bulls drove prices higher for the final hour.  This left the Dow with a modest loss and the S&P-500 closed flat while the NASDAQ-100 added a modest gain.  This was a new multi-year intraday and closing high for the NASDAQ-100 (barely).  The Dow remains below its 20-Day Moving Average (DMA) but below its 50-DMA.  The NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 are above their 20- and 50-DMAs.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 112.47 +0.44) notched a fractional gain but remains below its 20- and 50-DMAs.  The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 130.03 +0.07) only managed a modest gain closing even with its 50-DMA and is still below its 20-DMA.  The Semiconductors Index (SOX 549.48 +4.62) added nearly one percent closing at a new multi-year high.  It is above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.53 +0.00) was flat and remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  The laggards remain the Bank Index (KBE 32.22 +0.04) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 38.41 -0.07).   Both remain below their respective 20- and 50-DMAs.  Only the Semiconductor has achieved an uptrend state.  The others are all in trading states.  With that said, only the NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor Index remain with a BULLISH BIAS.  All others have a BEARISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.92 -0.55) posted another fractional loss and remains below its 20- and 200-DMAs but remains above its 50-DMA.  It is in a trading state but maintains its BULLISH BIAS but warned of a potential shift to a BEARISH BIAS.  Trading volume was quite light with 639M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was average with 2.012B shares traded.

In addition to the weekly crude oil inventory report, there were two economic reports of interest released:

  • MBA Mortgage Index for last week fell -2.0%
  • Treasury Budget (Jan) came in at -$10.4B versus an expected -$10.0B

The first report was released hours before the open while the latter report came out with two hours remaining in the session.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 24.77 -0.88) fell three percent closing back below its 200-DMA.  The price of gold rose fractionally.

Apple (AAPL 535.92 -0.04) closed flat.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose one tenth of one percent while the Euro fell four tenths of one percent. 

The yield for the 10-year rose four basis points to close at 2.76.  The price of a barrel of crude rose forty-three cents to close at $100.37.   The U.S. government reported that crude oil inventories rose by 3.267M barrels last week.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.30 -0.21) fell one percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.93 +0.09) rose fractionally.  This left the VIX closing just below its 200-DMA and with VXN remaining above its 200-DMA. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 4:3 on the NYSE and by 9:8 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume edged down volume on the NYSE and up volume led down volume 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.03 to close at 0.98.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.09 to close at 0.64.

Conclusion/Commentary

Wednesday saw the Dow revert to form and was weaker than the other two major indexes.  Although the day started with a gap up open and market internals were bullish, it was a light volume day on the NYSE and the NASDAQ-100 closed (3627.35) below the resistance area (3634.65) that we have been watching, which was the intraday high on January 22nd.  This was the most important resistance area to watch for and the bears were able to contain price action so the immediate outlook is bearish, for at least one session.  It appears that we will not have a gap up at the open so we will remain with our long positions and monitor trading action.  While we believe the bears will attempt to push prices lower, it is not yet clear how successful they will be and we only want to take a position that has high reward versus risk.  It is a difficult call here but it is usually better to avoid overtrading.  Remember, we are still intermediate term bearish but have not given up the short term bullish bias.  We just have to get through an immediate bearish bias and then we will take a look before the open tomorrow to see if there is a trade to be made.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

NASDAQ-100 leads the charge higher…

Recommendation:  Take no action.   

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and then moved higher for the first fifteen minutes before moving lower for the rest of the first hour.  The Dow was able to close the opening gap but the S&P-500 and NASDAQ-100 reversed course before getting into negative territory and it was all a rise after that.  All three finished with gains of one percent or more with the NASDAQ-100 being the strongest.  The Dow remains above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) and below its 20- and 50-DMAs as does the S&P-500 barely.  The NASDAQ-100, however, finished above all three moving averages and has shifted to a trading state.  Actually, all three major indexes shifted to trading states.  The  Semiconductor Index (SOX 533.31 +8.64) actually also closed above its 20- and 50-DMAs and is in a trading state.  The Dow, S&P-500, Russell-2000 (IWM 110.75 +1.24), Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.29 +0.26), Bank Index (KBE 31.81 +0.20) and Regional Bank Index (KRE 37.91 +0.06) all have a BEARISH BIAS with the other equity indexes warning of a potential shift to that as well with the exception of the NASDAQ-100 which no longer has that warning.  The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 129.56 +0.96) added only a fractional gain and shifted to a trading state.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.79 +0.09) closed somewhat flat recovering from a gap down open.  It is below its 200-DMA but above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  It is in a trading state but maintains its BULLISH BIAS.  Trading volume remained at a light 764M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume declined modestly to light with just 1.530B shares traded.

There were six economic reports of interest released:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) added +113K jobs versus an expected +175K
  • Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Jan) added +142K jobs versus an expected +161K
  • Unemployment Rate (Jan) came in at 6.6% versus an expected 6.7%
  • Hourly Earnings (Jan) rose by +0.2% as expected
  • Average Work Week (Jan) came in at 34.4 hours as expected
  • Consumer Credit (Dec) rose by $18.8B versus an expected +$11.5B

The first five reports were released an hour before the open.  The last report was released with one hour remaining in the session.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.91 +0.72) added three percent as the price of gold added a fractional gain.

Apple (AAPL 519.68 +7.17) added more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell one third of one percent while the Euro rose a like amount. 

The yield for the 10-year fell two basis points to close at 2.68.  The price of a barrel of crude rose +$2.04 to close at $99.88.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 15.29 -1.94) fell eleven percent while the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 16.71 -2.77) fell fourteen percent.  Both the VIX and VXN closed not far above their 200-DMAs. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 3:1 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume nearly 5:1 on the NYSE and by 6:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.23 to close at 0.75.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.07 to close at 0.68.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday saw follow through by the bulls adding to Thursday’s significant gains.  The NYSE saw a modest increase in volume while the NASDAQ saw trading volume decrease to relatively light volume.  With so many equity indexes shifting to trading states, it is now a matter of where the bears attack and whether the bulls want to see the nascent rally through.  We continue to look for a bull attack and need to see the bears counterattack to determine how far this latest move is likely to go.  Stay tuned.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Oversold bounce but will it hold?

Equities roar back but will it be enough?

Recommendation:  Take no action.   

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher the sharply sold off for fifteen minutes before beginning a saw-tooth move higher that would last through the morning and the lunch hour.  The afternoon saw a move lower into a sharp rally at 2:00pm followed by a sharp move lower a bit more than an hour later.  The last half hour saw the bulls in charge driving prices higher into the close with the major index all closing with fractional gains and higher than their gap up opens.  The Dow still closed below its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) but even with its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average.  Also, all three showed an important potential reversal pattern as did all the other equity indexes we regularly monitor.  All equity indexes we regularly report on are in downtrend states.  The Dow has a Bearish BIAS and the S&P-500, Bank Index (KBE 31.26 +0.48), the Regional Bank Index (KRE 37.54 +0.70), and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 20.73 +0.20) all have a NEUTRAL BIAS and we expect all of them to shift to a BEARISH BIAS by the middle of the week.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 518.34 +0.88) and the Russell 2000 (IWM 109.47 +0.82) posted fractional gains while the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 127.66 +1.43) rose more than one percent.  Longer term bonds (TLT 108.16 -1.16) fell more than one percent closing just above its 200-DMA and also well above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  It remains in an uptrend state with a BULLISH BIAS.  Trading volume fell modestly but is still around average with 836M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was above average with 2.139B shares traded.

There was a single economic report of interest released:

  • Factory Orders (Dec) fell -1.5% versus an expected -1.7%

The report was released a half hour into trading. 

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.59 +0.29) rose  a bit more than one percent.  Gold prices rose modestly.

Apple (AAPL 508.79 +7.26) rose more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose one tenth of one percent while the Euro fell a like amount.

The yield for the 10-year rose four basis points to close at 2.62.  The price of a barrel of crude rose seventy-six cents to close at $97.19.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 19.11 -2.33) fell eleven percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 20.10 -1.34) fell six percent.  Both the VIX and VXN closed well above their 200-DMAs. 

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 2:1 on the NYSE and by 5:3 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 3:1 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.45 to close at 1.14.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.01 to close at 0.60Note: It is quite odd that the index put/call ratio soared on a day when volatility decreased as equities rebounded.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday was a bounce from oversold conditions.  With that said, every equity index we follow showed similar reversal patterns.  The pattern is a Japanese Candlestick pattern is known as a Hirami, or a Hirami star.  It must be confirmed by an up day on Wednesday.  If confirmed, it signals a likely bottom across the board for equities.  What is key here is that the Dow, which has been the weakest of all the equity indexes we regularly follow, is trading right around its 200-DMA.  A reversal here has significant importance to technical traders and the algorithms used for high speed trading.  We will monitor trading on Wednesday to see if the bulls can finally put two days of gains together.  Overnight, Equity index futures were modestly lower as Asian market closed mixed while European bourses also traded in mixed fashion.  The ADP Employment Change and ISM Index reports are due out before the open and half hour into the session respectfully on Wednesday.  They may shift the balance.  Stay tuned.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Most equities falter but the Dow closes higher…

The late week slide sets the market up for a larger move after the MLK holiday…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened lower then moved up in the first fifteen minutes before reversing to head lower in the next fifteen minutes.  The bulls then stepped in to drive prices higher into the early lunch hour.  From there it was a mixed bag with a rally taking place after the lunch hour that was modest for the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 but ran to a new high for the Dow.  The rally lasted until there were a couple of hour remaining and sellers took control and drove prices steadily lower into the close leaving the S&P-500 and NASDAQ-100 with fractional losses and the Dow with a modest gain.  The Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.06 +0.14) posted a fractional gain but remains the only equity index we regularly monitor to close below its 20-Day Moving Average (DMA).  The Bank Index (KBE 33.31 +0.00) closed flat while the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.93 -0.08) logged a fractional loss.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 115.93 -0.41) and the Semiconductor Index (SOX 538.14 -3.02) posted fractional losses while the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 132.88 +0.22) posted a fractional gain.  All equity indexes we regularly monitor closed above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs with the exception of the Regional Bank Index.   All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.48 +0.44) posted a fractional gain.  It remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in an uptrend state.  It has warned of a shift to a BULLISH BIAS which would take place in the coming week if there is not a sharp reversal.  Trading volume was average with 848M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was just above average with 2.185B shares traded. 

There were six economic reports of interest released:

  • Housing Starts (Dec) came in at 999K versus an expected 986K
  • Building Permits (Dec) came in at 986K versus an expected 1.000M
  • Industrial Production (Dec) rose +0.3% as expected
  • Capacity Utilization (Dec) came in at 79.2% versus an expected 79.1%
  • UofMichigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) came in at 80.4 versus an expected 83.0
  • JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) came in at 4.001M versus the prior month’s 3.931M

The first four reports were released before the open with the other two coming out within the first half hour of trading.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.33 +0.71) rose over three percent.

Apple (AAPL 540.67 -13.58) fell more than two percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose one third of one percent while the Euro fell seven tenths of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year rose a single basis point to close at 2.83.  The price of a barrel of crude rose forty-one cents to close at $94.37

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.44 -0.09) fell fractionally while the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.20 +0.09) rose fractionally.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bearish with with decliners leading advancers nearly 3:2 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume by most of 2:1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.11 to close at 0.77.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.04 to close at 0.53.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday was a pre-holiday trading day and options expiration day for January options.  While some equity indexes closed modestly higher, most closed fractionally lower.  This is likely just what the bulls needed to get back into the drivers seat.  We shall see if the bulls are ready to drive prices higher on Tuesday following the Martin Luther King holiday closure on Monday.  We will remain long at this time looking for a push higher by the bulls.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

The Bears brush the bulls back as financials falter…

The Dow and financials continue to underperform…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened lower then moved in mixed fashion with the Dow sliding for the first 1.5 hours while the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 attempted to rally for the first hour before joining the Dow in a slide.  By late morning, the slide was over and, although it was not a straight line move higher, the major indexes battled their way higher the remainder of the session with the NASDAQ-100 with a modest gain and with the S&P-500 closing with a modest loss.  The Dow lost less than one half of one percent.  The Regional Bank Index (KRE 39.92 -0.33) was the only equity index we regularly monitor to close below its 20-Day Moving Average (DMA).  The Bank Index (KBE 33.31 -0.21) and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.01 -0.07) both logged fractional losses.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 116.34 +0.14) logged a gain while the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 132.64 -0.79) and the Semiconductor Index (SOX 541.05 -3.16) posted fractional losses.  All equity indexes we regularly monitor closed above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs with the exception of the Regional Bank Index.   All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.04 +0.70) posted a fractional gain.  It remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a nascent uptrend state.  Trading volume eased to a light 650M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume eased but remained average with 1.975B shares traded. 

There were seven economic reports of interest released:

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 326K versus an expected 333K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims for last week came in at 3.030M versus an expected 2.835M
  • CPI (Dec) rose +0.3% as expected
  • Core CPI (Dec) rose +0.1% versus an expected +0.2% rise
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Nov) came in at -$29.3B versus October’s -$28.7B
  • Philadelphia Fed (Jan) came in at 9.4 versus an expected 8.0
  • NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) came in at 56 versus an expected 57

The first four reports were released an hour before the open with the next one a half hour later.  The final two were released a half hour into trading.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 22.62 +0.23) rose one percent even as gold added just one tenth of one percent.

Apple (AAPL 554.25 -3.11) posted a fractional loss.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell one tenth of one percent while the Euro rose a like amount.

The yield for the 10-year fell four basis points to close at 2.84.  The price of a barrel of crude fell twenty-one cents to close at $93.96

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.53 +0.25) rose two percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.11 +0.48) rose more than three percent.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were mixed with decliners leading advancers 4:3 on the NYSE while advancers led decliners narrowly on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 5:4 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.09 to close at 0.88.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.09 to close at 0.57.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday saw the bears flex their muscles a bit with most equity indexes closing lower.  This was led by a four tenths of one percent collapse by the Dow and with even larger fractional losses for the Bank Indexes and the Finance Sector index.  We will give the bulls time to defend themselves but can see the bulls continuing to struggle on Friday.  We will remain long at this time looking for a potential reversal sign in the near future.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Break outs all over the place…

The Dow and banks remain underperformers…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then traded higher through most of the morning in to settle into sideways trading action for the rest of the session for the Dow and S&P-500.  The NASDAQ-100 also put in a high in late morning trading but then after a modest dip, the bulls once again drove it higher until it peaked at a new intraday high with an hour remaining in the session.  It eased for the final hour but still managed to add most of one percent.  The gains for the Dow and S&P-500 were also fractional and more modest than for the NASDAQ-100.  All equity indexes we regularly monitor closed above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs with the exception of the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.25 +0.18) closed back above its 20-DMA joining the Bank Index (KBE 33.52 +0.28) and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.08 +0.20) adding fractional gains but only the Finance Sector managed to close at a new high.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 116.20 +0.86), the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 134.37 +0.69), and the Semiconductor Index (SOX 544.21 +4.60) alled added fractional gains and closed at new highs.  .  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 104.34 -0.11) posted a fractional loss but remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a nascent uptrend state.  Trading volume increased to a below average 715M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume increased but remained average with 2.079B shares traded. 

In addition to the crude oil inventory report, there were four economic reports of interest released:

  • MBA Mortgage Index for last week came in at +11.9%
  • PPI (Dec) rose +0.4% versus an expected +0.3% rise
  • Core PPI (Dec) rose +0.3% versus an expected +0.1% rise
  • NY Empire Manufacturing (Jan) came in at 12.5 versus an expected 3.5

All reports were released an hour or more before the open.

The Fed also released its beige book showing moderate economic growth and with job growth in two thirds of the regions.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 22.39 +0.19) added a fractional gain even as gold dropped fractionally.

Apple (AAPL 557.36 +10.97) added a gain of more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose four tenths of one percent while the Euro fell six tenths of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year rose a single basis point to close at 2.88.  The price of a barrel of crude rose +$1.58 to close at $94.17.  The U.S. government reported a draw down of -7.658M barrels of crude oil last week.  This has been at least three weeks of significant draw downs in crude oil supplies and is starting to affect oil prices.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.28 +0.00) was unchanged.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 13.63 +0.11) rose fractionally.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners nearly 2:1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by more than 2:1 on the NYSE and by nearly 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.09 to close at 0.79.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.04 to close at 0.48.

Conclusion/Commentary

Wednesday saw the bulls continue buying this market.  The break out move higher by the vast majority of equity indexes we regularly follow demonstrates significant strength still.  The Dow remains weaker than the other major indexes and has yet to break out.  The bank indexes are the others that have not yet broken to new highs.  We will remain long at this time looking for a potential reversal sign in the near future.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Bears seize the day but bulls seize it back…

Dow finishes flat (down seven points)…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then plunged dramatically in the first forty-five minutes before vacillating and eventually moving lower into late morning.  In fact, the Dow continued lower until in cemented a bottom just after noon.  The major indexes traded higher through much of the lunch hour before the bears tried again.  For the Dow, this resulted in a modest move lower but for the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 it was more of a speed bump.  The NASDAQ-100 kept inching higher through the rest of the session but the S&P-500 didn’t break out until the final hour when it and the Dow shot higher.  This left the Dow flat and the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 with fractional gains.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 115.52 +0.63), the Semiconductor Index (SOX 533.70 +2.21), and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 133.77 +1.66) were all able to post gains, the latter of more than one percent.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.50 -0.08), the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.38 -0.06), and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.03 -0.04) all posted fractional losses.  All equity indexes finished above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 104.41 +1.23) added a gain of more than one percent and finish above its 20- and 50-DMAs for the first time since November 7th.  I remains below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume decreased modestly remaining below average with 645M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume decreased modestly remaining above average with 2.128B shares traded. 

There were six economic reports of interest released:

  • Non-farm Payrolls (Dec) came in at 74K versus an expected 197K
  • Non-farm Private Payrolls (Dec) came in at 87K versus an expected 198K
  • Unemployment Rate (Dec) came in at 6.7% versus an expected 7.0%
  • Hourly Earnings (Dec) increased +0.1% versus an expected +0.2%
  • Average Work Week (Dec) came in at 34.4 hours versus an expected 34.5 hours
  • Wholesale Inventories (Nov) increased +0.5% versus an expected +0.2%

Five reports were released an hour before the open.  The last report was released a half hour into trading.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 22.01 +0.74) rose more than 3%.

Apple (AAPL 532.94 -3.58) posted a fractional loss.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell four tenths of one percent while the Euro rose most of one half of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year fell ten basis points to close at 2.86.  The price of a barrel of crude rose +1.06 to close at $92.72

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.14 -0.75) fell six percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.09 -1.01) dropped nearly seven percent.  Both the VIX and VXN remain well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 5:2 on the NYSE and by 4:3 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by 2:1 on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.18 to close at 0.93.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.02 to close at 0.53.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday was a bullish Day overall but the Dow still finished flat.  Financials posted modest losses and the banks are setting up to begin reporting earnings in the coming week so their trading action is key for the health of this market.  The leading indexes finished fairly strong so there appears to be an underlying bullish sentiment that is waiting to take things to the next level higher.  We are cautious still until things break one way or the other but we remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Hate Losing Money? READ THIS!

Hi,

Would you like a trading system that doubles, even triples your portfolio each year… and… would you like to do it with minimal losses?

I’d like to introduce you to a good friend of mine.

His name is Mark McMillan.

Over the last three years, he has systematically traded the major indices (DIA, QQQ and SPY)…and doubled, even tripled his returns.

There’s something else about Mark you need to know. He hates losing money.

Who is Mark McMillan

And Why You Should

Pay Attention To Him

Mark’s been a long-time subscriber to the Stock Barometer. He didn’t show up on my radar until I started chatting with him over e-mail a few years back.

When I realized what he’d figured out about market behavior and reversals… I started harassing him to write for me.

Here’s the deal with Mark. He’s a history and economics major who got into software engineering, technology marketing and all sorts of diverse knowledge. At heart, he’s a problem solver.

So in 2000, he decided he wanted to figure out how to practically never lose money in the market. To him, the pain of losing money outweighs the pleasure of making money any day.

After years of agony, heavy research and insane calculations… Mark’s discovered exactly how to tell when a market is trending, trading and… when reversals are about to occur.

In 2007, he started putting it all to the test and writing The McMillan Portfolio.

What Happened Next May Astonish You

Here are the results of what happened when he started implementing his system:

3 Years Ago

• DIA – 111.10%
• SPY – 123.20%
• QQQQ – 194.40%

2 Years Ago

• DIA – 234.54%
• SPY – 277.63%
• QQQQ – 201.81%

Last Year

• DIA – 114.39%
• SPY – 125.77%
• QQQ – 103.18%

That’s Just One Half Of It

Mark’s use of behavioral economics in trading the major indices is only one half of what you’ll get when you subscribe to The McMillan Portfolio.

Mark is also a reversal specialist who discovers undervalued stocks as they’re just about to make a turnaround. He’s got five positions in that portfolio right now at and he’s about to reveal more.

Let me share some figures with you…

  • Undervalue Play #1 – Mark entered this stock at $20 after it plunged from a lofty $77.61 high just mere months before. Today, Mark is sitting on 121.5% profits.

 

  • Undervalue Play #2 – This stock had lost 72% of its value in five months. Mark courageously enters this stock at $12.50 and now sits on a 148.2% profit.

 

  • Undervalue Play #3 – This one is good. 80% of its value decimated from September of 2008 to February of 2009. Mark’s entry at $6 that month rewards him with a 318.5% profit today.

 

  • Undervalue Play #4 – Mark pulls an absolute miracle here. His entry at $4.25 for this stock was twenty-four cents off from it’s lowest low. Incidentally, this position is a 349.9% profit as of today.

OK. It’s unfair to show you the positive without the negative. As I said many times before, Mark hates losing. He usually gets out of losing trades extremely quick. But he is holding on to one particular trade right now you should be aware of.

  • Undervalue Play #5 – He’s held this one since November of 2008. It’s sitting at a minor loss right now. A whopping 1.4% loss. I hope that doesn’t scare you off.
I think you’ll agree with me, The McMillan Portfolio is worth giving a try, at least. I would like to offer you 28 days nearly free. A trial subscription is only $4.95. After that, it’s $18.95 each month until you cancel.

Mark Can Help You

Double, Even Triple

Your Account This Year

You’ve seen the performance numbers above. Mark HATES losing. And using his conservative trading strategy for the major indices (QQQ, SPY & DIA), he has helped his subscribers double their account every year since 2007. In the most volatile year of 2008, he nearly quadrupled his SPY trades… closing the year at a 277.63% return.

Mark is the only professional trader I know of on earth who’s figured out when the market is trending or trading. He tells you what each of the major indices are doing every, single trading day.

If you trade the major index ETFs as he exactly prescribes, you’d get the same results he delivers.

Not only that…

What would it be worth to you… to know exactly if the market is bullish, bearing, trending or trading? How many trades did you get whipsawed out of this year? How many reversals did you miss?

Do you punish yourself by back dating trades you “could’ve” made? STOP. Seriously. With Mark’s daily market prognosis, you’ll know if it’s safe or dangerous to bet on those more speculative trades you got on the side.

Listen. Mark’s advisory is worth much more than the $18.95/month we charge. But because we believe in its value, we are offering you a trial 28 days for only $4.95.

If you are not blown away at how accurate Mark’s calls are over the next 30 days, cancel. No questions asked, no hassles, no harm done. You will have spent less than a Venti at Starbucks.

Get your trial 28 days of The McMillan Portfolio now…

But wait, I’d like to throw in a bonus from myself…

I’ll do everything I can to promote Mark’s service here. So here’s what I’ll include in your subscription to The McMillan Portfolio today…

Mark’s Stock Market Chat Room (Value $24.95/Month): Every Trading Day – from 9 A.M. Eastern to 4 pm, I Mark hops in to our online chat room for an hour and talk to whoever is there about trading methodologies, psychology, money management and trades to look out for on Monday morning.

It gets hot and heavy in there. Subscribers just love the energy and exchange of high value education. Will you join us?

If You Hate Losing Money,

And Want An Index Trading System

That Has At Least Doubled Every Year

For The Last Three Years…

You Need The McMillan Portfolio

Mark is on track to beating the DJI, SPX and NASD-100 again this year already. In his value portfolio, he is sitting on 187.3% of profits from trades he entered a year or so ago. He’s about to call the tops on three other major indices.  Simply one of the best ETF portfolios out there.

Find out what they are so you can profit from them.  Subscribe to The McMillan Portfolio today.

Regards,

Carl Adams

P.S. Did you hear about Goldman Sachs last week? Mark’s got some interesting insights that could make you a lot of money.