Good morning Traders,

Friday’s bounce on very light volume is setting up the potential next weak
day.  The challenge with it being Monday is it’s month end.  Last
Thursday’s action showed just how much damage can be caused by one of the FANG
member stocks having a bad day.  Looking through those stocks, if selling
picks up, they’ll likely drive the Qs down to the 128 level – and that’s just
for starters.

Here’s a view of our seasonal charts to gain perspective on the action in the
month ahead – following our standard priority of stocks, bonds, dollar, gold,
oil, and nat gas.

qqq seasonality

bond

US Dollar Seasonality

gold seasonality

oil seasonality

nat gas seasonality

Conditions are right for a correction – stocks are in a seasonal sideways to
weak period through 10/1 and bonds are also in a window where they show seasonal
strength.  One caveat there is the Fed reducing it’s QE bloated balance
sheet.  They technically have t sell enough but not manufacture a
crash.  We could even see bonds go down, with stocks, driving rates
up.  Do you think the economy is ready for that?  Someone always
has to ruin the party.  And this time it’s the Fed.

Add in that gold is in a seasonal strong period and showing strength and that
further supports weak markets.  Oil is a wild card as inventories dry
up.  Oil prices could melt up for a while as the weak dollar makes oil
cheaper around the globe.  Thus the push into international markets over US
markets.

Nat Gas remains difficult to trade.  I’ll do a full review of our
indicators on Nat Gas (it isn’t called the widow maker for nothing) to see if we
can gain some leverage on what’s driving the trade there.  Still looks to
be forming some sort of double bottom and retest of the Feb 2016 lows, which
could make a good trade.

To access all the DSB newsletters, including all our research charts, click
here:  http://www.stockbarometer.com/cb_dsb.aspx

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

 

 

Click here to get our stock market timing advice and gain access to all 300 of our market timing charts updated weekly.

Stock market bottom

The relationship between stocks and bonds is key to interpreting and predicting future price action. The view is that the bond market is so much larger than the stock market, that money flowing in and out of bonds causes movement in other vehicles, such as stocks.

Take a look at the following momentum chart of the QQQ versus Bonds (in the form of TLT) :

QQQ Bonds TLT RSI

What you can see is initial peaks in the relative action cause markets to pause. The second peak – whether it’s higher or lower, tells you if momentum is shifting.

Where are we now? We’ve had our initial peak in Stocks bouncing relative to Bonds and we’re working on the second peak. We at www.stockbarometer.com expect a bearish divergence to set up the next move lower in the markets. Bonds will bounce, gold will bounce and risky assets will fall. But this action will ultimately set up the next best buying opportunity for the stock market! So stay tuned!

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This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

To learn more, visit www.stockbarometer.com or sign up for our free newsletter at http://archive.aweber.com/awlist3823220

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Traders be on the look out for a top forming this week. This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

Nyse Crash Hindenberg Omen

For the above signal from the Hindenberg Omen to be valid, we need to see the McLellan Oscillator to be negative…it is:

McLellan Oscillator

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Traders be on the look out for a top forming this week. This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

AAII Stock Market Signal

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https://www.facebook.com/InvestmentResearchGroupInc/?ref=hl

Traders be on the look out for a top forming this week. This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

Market timing cycle indicator

To learn more, visit www.stockbarometer.com or sign up for our free newsletter at http://archive.aweber.com/awlist3823220

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Traders be on the look out for a top forming this week. This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

Stock market timing

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As 2015 winds down, here is our QQQ Seasonality.  Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn how to profit from the next move.

qqq seasonality

From this weekends advisory to clients – visit www.stockbarometer.com and subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer – first month for only $1.  Stock market timing advice for over 15 years!

Citigroup Euphoria Index

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SPY to SPX

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn how this fits into our daily stock market forecast.

Cumulative Tick Index

Good evening Traders,
 
As Market Weakness is finally upon us, there can be a significant response in the stock market. 
 
Accordingly, we want to make you a special offer.  Our Daily Stock Barometer Premier Service for only $24.95.  This is
a limited time offer (available for the next week only) and if you subscribe, we’ll honor your subscription for as long as you remain subscribed. 
There’s a lot about to happen in the markets right now, and we want as many traders to be ready for it.  We’ll have this evening’s Daily Stock
Barometer below, but first, more about your subscription. 
 
The Premier subscription includes the following:
 
  • The Daily Stock Barometer – Stock market timing advice
  • QQQ Trader Alert – trade the QQQ using our market timing advice
  • Stock Options Speculator – Top 100 PUTS and CALLS at our timing reversals
  • Covered Call Alert – our top 100 Covered Calls at stock market tops.
  • IRG Market Timing Indicators – all our research (that you see here and 300 more indicators) Emailed to you weekly
  • Gold Options Trader – Using our research to trade Gold Options – our last trade was up several hundred percent
  • Oil Options Trader – Using our research to trade Oil Options – again our last trade in this service (PUTS) was up over 400%
  • Natural Gas Options Trader – we recently expanded our research theories to cover Natural Gas 
  • And more…
To subscribe, click the following link over the next week.  We are not offering a discounted trial to the services,
because this is a limited time half off deal. 
 
 
 
Here’s this Evening’s Daily Stock Barometer:
 
 
Important Week
12/14/2014 7:27:44 PM
 
Good evening Traders,
 
As we’ve pointed out in the past, periodically, reversals align with expiration.  And this week should
be no different as it rolls into expiration this Friday.  We have a lot of charts to go through today, so let’s dig right
in…
 
First – the situation in index options is changing rapidly…
 
index options
 
And there’s a corresponding move in equity options:
 
equity options
 
The indicator above suggests we’re close to a bottom in the short term.
 
Moving on to the economy:
 
ecri
 
Bonds are getting extended (This is bullish for stocks).
 
bonds
 
The dollar is getting overbought and momentum is slowing – this would be bullish for the Nasdaq.
 
usd
 
While we’re looking at the dollar, what about Gold?
 
gold
 
This is a neat chart that shows the extent that markets can sell off, but we’re at a relative
low.
 
nasdaq new lows
 
Very concerning is the Nasdaq Breadth here:
 
Nasdaq Cumulative Breadth
 
In this view of the Nyse Trin, it’s bullish:
 
trin
 
But in this view, which looks at the highs, lows and close of the trin, we can see worse readings:
 
trin comb
 
And on to oil – which is all the talk (And we’re about to issue some call options this
week).
 
oil
 
At the time of this writing Sunday night, oil is continuing it’s slide lower. 
 
long term barometer
 
Our QQQ indicator is also pointing lower, but getting extended in the short term.
 
QQQ Timer
 
Summary:
 
The market is at a point where I like to say, the rubber meets the road.  If we’re going to crash,
we’ll do it this week into Friday.  But given the time of the and the coordination with our forecast for 2014 – we’re more likely
to see prices stabilize and rally early this week into expiration.  Then as we enter the final two weeks of the year, prices should further stabilize
into a year end top. 
 
Oil is starting to look good here, but we’re not inclined to catch that falling knife.  A few call options
though could prove lucrative longer term.  You can get some February calls pretty cheap (which we’ll recommend when we see a
bottom).
 
Gold should be cranking, but the absence of the move and positioning of some of the bets in gold suggest further
weakness.  Not ready to make that bet yet – but preparing to.
We’ll give up a little of our QQQ gains to remain positioned for this bounce as the move has efficiently built
energy and the underlying action in the market to form a bottom is starting to initiate right on schedule with expiration.
 
Regards,
 
_____________________________________
 
We’re about to publish our year end models for 2015 and the year end is setting up for a very significant trade and we want as many
people to be on board as possible.  We’ve been writing this advisory for over 10 years, so we would love to prove our value to you and have you as a
client.
 
Again, To subscribe, click the following link over the next week.  Note, we are not offering trials for this
special limited time deal. 
 
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 

Nyse Cumulative Volume

bond money flow

Here’s an indicator from our morning update that suggests the market could bounce soon…

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Good Evening Traders,

Here’s a chart from this morning’s Daily Stock Barometer.  Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

Stock Market Relative Strength

Good morning Traders,

Our timing indicators are showing a top.  Here are some of our top options issued in our stock options speculator service this morning.  To see the list for the Nasdaq 100, visit www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for a $1 trial…

top PUT options

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to access all our research like below:

stock market money flow

Good Sunday morning Traders,

There remains in the market a significant divergence between the action in the NYSE and the Nasdaq.  The Qs have been selling off and the SPY have been holding on.  We have two indicators that focus on both markets.

For the NYSE – my first algorithm that I created is here:

NYSE Market Timing

This indicator is in the middle of the range, which basically means that we have NO idea where it’s going, but that the likelihood of a larger move lower is growing.  We saw this back in 2011 a couple of times, and that’s my expectation as our next Key Reversal Date is 4/10 (from our cycle research).

Next is the Barometer for the QQQ/Nasdaq – in 2005, we migrated from a timing service on the SPY to the QQQ to take advantage of the added beta (which you can leverage further now with margin or leveraged ETFs.)

Nasdaq Market Timing

As you can see, we’re at a similar level as the previous bottom.  The market tried to reverse on Friday, but late day (computer) selling pushed us back towards lows.  Is this quarter end manipulation?  We won’t know until next week.  So while I expect a move lower into the 4/10 period.  If I’m wrong, it would be even more bearish for the markets to rally into 4/10.  If that happens, we’ll get a buy signal next week and ride the move – with a little fear that we’re picking up dimes in front of a steam roller.

For an update on our Gold options, which are up over 100% in a couple weeks, please visit here:

http://fat-pitch-etf-trader.com/?p=1148

Good morning Traders,

Here’s our update from this morning’s Daily Stock Barometer on Money Flow:

Equity Money Flow

For more information, visit http://d26ff9z3g4k31le8efqfoefqev.hop.clickbank.net/

I think not…

Good morning Traders,

Here’s an indicator from my morning article – the Daily Stock Barometer:

This is a basic indicator that tells a significant story – and the story here is that we have more selling to come before we mark a bottom here.

We are looking for the markets to be weak into 4/10.  Visit www.stockbarometer.com to sign up for a $1 trial to the Daily Stock Barometer and access all our research for free!