Good morning Traders,
 
There’s a lot going on in the markets this week, so let’s dig right in.
 
The market is in the process of adjusting to the action by the Swiss Central Bank.  Amazing how these black swan events come out
of the blue.  And it takes markets a while to adjust.  As a money manager, you don’t just dump your entire portfolio on the market. 
It’s a process of building a position.  Here’s how money managers move their money:
 
Click here to subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer
 
The issue on the timing with the market right now is that we’re at an options expiration.  These points in time tend to be
either reversals or acceleration points.  Also we’re seeing a spike in index put buying – so as you approach expiration, it makes sense for firms to
want weakness to get the most benefit – before jumping in and buying this market.  FYI – We issued the following chart back in 2013
with our forecast going all the way into 2015 – it was calling for an ominous move and we’re seeing it play out right now:
 
Click here to subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer
 
We’ve already released our full forecast for 2015 to our clients – if you subscribe today, you’ll get to see our full view for the
remainder of the year.  You may be surprised…
 
We’re also seeing a peak in the US Dollar and Bonds.  If this is truly a peak, then we’re going to have some great opportunities
in the very near term in oil and gold and natural gas.  Accordingly, we want to make you a special offer on our Premier Service – a USD50
Value, for only 24.95 – and you’ll get access to the following (including ALL our research charts):
  • The Daily Stock Barometer –
    Stock market timing advice
  • QQQ Trader Alert – trade the
    QQQ using our market timing advice
  • Stock Options Speculator –
    Top 100 PUTS and CALLS at our timing reversals
  • Covered Call Alert – our top
    100 Covered Calls at stock market tops.
  • IRG Market Timing Indicators
    – all our research (that you see here and 300 more indicators) Emailed to you weekly
  • Gold Options Trader
    – Using our research to trade Gold Options – our last trade was up several hundred percent
  • Oil Options Trader – Using
    our research to trade Oil Options – again our last trade in this service (PUTS) was up over 400%
  • Natural Gas Options Trader –
    we recently expanded our research theories to cover Natural Gas 
  • And
    more…
This is a limited time offer (available for
the next week only) and if you subscribe, we’ll honor your subscription for as long as you remain subscribed.  There’s a lot about to happen in the
markets right now, and we want as many traders to be ready for it. 
We are not offering a discounted trial to the
services, because this is a limited time half off deal. 
 
 
We’ve also been following several more research indicators (from other sources) that we’ll release in the coming weeks.
 
How about a stock chart:
 
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From a technical point of view, things are not so bad yet – this sideways action represents less than a 50% retracement of the
large October advance (which was our 9 month cycle low).  So as technically bearish as the market is, the markets are building potential
energy to bounce. 
 
How about money flow:
 
Click here to subscribe
 
This view of money flow is very bullish – nothing we’re seeing now is out of the ordinary with this rally.  That being said, if
you remove the ETF data, then the picture looks a little different:
 
Click here to subscribe
 
This is a chart we shared with clients a week ago.  The 07/08 top saw similar action – where people who were late
entering the market advance flooded into Index ETFs.  If you take out that data, it shows that the market may be vulnerable. 
 
 
Again, we want to make you a special offer on our Premier Service – a USD50 Value, for only 24.95 – and you’ll get access to the
following (including ALL our research charts):

  • The Daily Stock Barometer –
    Stock market timing advice
  • QQQ Trader Alert – trade the
    QQQ using our market timing advice
  • Stock Options Speculator –
    Top 100 PUTS and CALLS at our timing reversals
  • Covered Call Alert – our top
    100 Covered Calls at stock market tops.
  • IRG Market Timing Indicators
    – all our research (that you see here and 300 more indicators) Emailed to you weekly
  • Gold Options Trader
    – Using our research to trade Gold Options – our last closed trade was up several hundred percent
  • Oil Options Trader – Using
    our research to trade Oil Options – again our last closed trade in this service (PUTS) was up over 400%
  • Natural Gas Options Trader –
    we recently expanded our research theories to cover Natural Gas 
  • And
    more…
This is a limited time offer (available for
the next week only) and if you subscribe, we’ll honor your subscription for as long as you remain subscribed.  There’s a lot about to happen in the
markets right now, and we want as many traders to be ready for it. 
We are not offering a discounted trial to the
services, because this is a limited time half off deal. 
 

 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
Good afternoon Traders,
 
And more importantly – are you all set for the New Year?  With the new year, brings new opportunities in the stock
market.  And while we’ve been pretty clear with our forecast for the start of 2015, let’s take a look at a couple indicators that are setting up just
right.
 
But before I do, I want to alert you to one of our traders who’s been doing very well.  Gregory Clay’s
High Value Options Trader (HVOT) service just closed another big winner.  The
HVOT service includes a subscription to either Weekly Income Credit Spreads or
Easy Money Options Income.  These two income service produce the consistent profits that are
then leveraged in the HVOT service.  So this is all about gains on top of gains!
 
We’ll feature the article below, but to take part in this service for 2015:
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?   Use DISCOUNT CODE HVO1
when signing up.  Also let us know if you’d like WICS or EMOI included with your subscription.
 
Remember, we’re never going to come here and over promote any of our services like our competitors do.  I recently saw a
headline from a competitor about a “Misunderstood Option Strategy Earns Trader $41 Million in Only 3 Years” – we will never insult your
intelligence like that.  We are about real traders providing real advice.  We personally review the trading account statements from our
traders.  And we require they publish their performance – all trades – both good and bad – at least quarterly.  It’s our promise to
you. 
 
Before I share Gregory’s article/trade, here’s an indicator that’s playing into our call:
 
Cumulative new highs and new lows
 
The condition above preceded one of the largest, quickest sell offs that we have EVER seen.   I’m not saying it will
happen again, but I am suggesting that we’ll see some weakness.
 
Here’s Gregory’s last HVOT Alert:
———————————————-
 
Trade Alert – TRIP Exit Plan12/23/2014 9:17:12 PM
 
Market Summary
 
 
 
Your November
20th High Value Option Trader (HVOT) analyzed a TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP) trade and said
the stock price has moved higher after flashing a technical bullish reversal
sign…
the stock is at the
extremely oversold level where the price is starting to bounce off its 52-week low established last week…downward volume has dissipated and the
momentum indicator is starting to turn bullish.
At this point buying TRIP calls is a
low-risk opportunity to position for a big gain over the next few months.
 
…” TripAdvisor, Inc. stock price
bounced as expected, but the daily chart below indicates the upward move is stuck below a resistance level. The chart is flashing technical bearish reversal
signals; therefore it is best to cash out of this trade for a decent profit and avoid the opportunity for the price to
retrench.
 
Subscribe Now
 
 
Exit Plan
 
The OPENING TRADE down below was setup and published in the November
20
th High Value Option Trader
(HVOT) where we posted the exit plan for this trade
“…
Near term
resistance for the TRIP is our $82 target where we will look to close out this trade
(sell the call contracts)…” The chart above shows the trade may not achieve the original target
price, therefore tomorrow morning the plan is to enter an order to exit the position as displayed
in the CURRENT PRICE below.
 
Click on the
link below to see the opening trade article
 
 
 
Approx. gain is
$1,100 (Excludes commissions and
fees
)
 
Projected gain
is an approx. 49% ROI in approximately a month
 
Regards,
 
Gregory Clay
Option
Strategist
 
————————————–
 
So as you can see above, imagine taking the profits from one service, and using them to profit even more!  This is leveraging
compounding returns at it’s best!
 
 
Back to the stock market, here’s another piece of research we shared this week:
 
NAAIM
 
This shows the underlying investment managers positioning in a cyclical basis to stock markets.  Very interesting.  And
something to consider as we approach the new year with money managers fully invested!
 
Again, if you want to make profiting part of your 2015 resolutions – you can click the below link and get your first 4
weeks of Gregory’s HVOT Service for only $1?  
 
Use DISCOUNT CODE HVO1 when signing up.  Also let us know if you’d like WICS or EMOI included with
your subscription.
 
 
Have a Happy New Year and we look forward to helping you profit from the markets in 2015!
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
PS – Again, CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP and don’t forget to USE DISCOUNT CODE HVO1 when
signing up and let us know if you want WICS or EMOI at no extra cost.
Good morning Traders,
 
As stocks make new high after new high, and complacency floods the market, we’re starting to get worried.  We have a new piece
of research that we’ll show you below that should cause you a little concern.  If anything, in stocks right now, get in and out quickly and take those
profits.
 
And no one knows that better than Ian Mitchell, who has been racking up gains getting in and out of stocks for 2-3 days of
gains.  This is very controlled trading and you get his daily trading advice.  I believe it is his marine background that gives him the
courage and confidence to trade so precisely and disciplined. 
 
As a subscriber to Ian’s Stock Trader service, you will get a copy of his Stock Trading Manual where he teaches you his
system, and you will see him execute the system with trades and updates EVERY DAY!
 
Let’s take a look at his last trade:
 
Ian Mitchell's Stock Trader
 
As a subscriber to Ian’s service you get very precise advice, following a strict plan, and daily updates on the trade action. 
And most important – it’s profitable.  Note on the trade above, it’s a 3:1 profit to loss ratio – that is one of the biggest keys to trading
successfully.
 
How do you sign up?
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1 when signing up.
 
As for the markets, we have been raising the warning signs and on Friday, the issues in the oil market may have been just the
start.  What it did in the markets is blow out the new lows, and when new lows reach a certain level – combined with stock trending higher and a
negative McClellan Oscillator – then you have a crash signal.  We issued it to our clients this morning and we will be following up with it
in the days ahead.  The signal is active for 30 days.  Which lines up with our call for a stock market top coming in within that
window.  So stay tuned. 
 
Here is some new research we are following:
 
Ian Mitchell's Stock Trader
 
What this shows us is how this group of active money managers are positioned.   You can see the signal at the October
bottom.  And you can see that active managers are approaching the fully bullish position which can equate to a top.   Better than
any poll, this is how they’re positioning their money, which means worlds more…
 
So ho can you profit from the coming volatility?  Active trading.  The buy and hold since the 2009 bottom will be over
and only the nimble will survive.  And the best way to do that is to get in and out of stocks.
 
As a subscriber to Ian Mitchell’s Stock Trader service, you will get:
  • Daily Trading Advice
  • Ian’s Stock Trading Manual – learn his system and see him trade it
  • Published Performance records every month – so you can know what to expect
  • Ian’s educational email series covering what is required to be a successful trader
  • All of the above and a 4 week trial for only $1
How do you sign up?
 
 
How do you get your first 4 weeks for only $1?
 
USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1 when signing up.
 
Ian’s just recommended a position in AMZN – sign up now and follow along…
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
PS – Again, CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP  and don’t forget to USE DISCOUNT CODE IMS1
when signing up.

Good
Friday Afternoon Traders,

 

Over
the past several weeks, we’ve been introducing you to Gregory Clay, our Chief
Options Strategist and editor of High Value Option Trader.  On May 13th he
got his readers into a bull call spread in TSLA and closed the position at the
last options expiration.   The below email details the 150% profit in
just a couple of weeks! 

 

Gregory
has also taken positions in VIX, HUM and IBM.  To follow along with those
trades for the next 4 weeks for only $1 click the below link and use
discount code HVO1
If you sign up over the next week, we’ll give you a free
copy of Edwin Lefever’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.  The most
popular trading book by far!

 

CLICK HERE TO TRY GREGORY CLAY’S HIGH VALUE OPTION TRADER
– Use Discount Code HVO1 for a $1 four week
trial.

 

High Value Option Trader
—————————————————————-

The
May 13th High Value Option Trader setup a Tesla Motors, Inc.
(NasdaqGS:TSLA) 17-day Bull Call Spread.

 

 

Exit
Plan

The option contracts expire this coming Friday and since
the position has reached our closing prices we are immediately executing the
CLOSING TRADE displayed below.
The
suggestion is to submit a limit order for the option strike prices below
(Friday’s
closing price bid/ask mean)

 

 

 

 

 

Approx. gain $3,720 (Excludes commissions and
fees
)

Projected
gain is an approx. 150% profit

 

Below
is the chart we used several weeks ago when we analyzed the Tesla Motors, Inc.
bull-call spread trade.

 

 

 

  

Below
is the most recent Tesla daily chart which confirms our analysis above is valid
and the stock price filled the gap to hit our price target.

 

 

Regards,

Gregory
Clay

Options
Strategist

 

As
for the markets, tops are the most difficult thing to call, and there is no
shortage of those calling for a top here.  Usually when the crowd is
leaning strongly in one direction, like calling a top, then the market advance
will continue.  And Pro traders like Gregory Clay will continue to reap
profits by not fighting the trend.

 

Regards,

 

Carl
Adams, Publisher

www.stockbarometer.com

 

PS
– Don’t forget, if you sign up within a week from today, we’ll send you a
free copy of Edwin Lefever’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.   CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP  and don’t forget
to USE DISCOUNT CODE
HVO1
when signing up to get your $1 Trial.

Good morning traders,

Here is a chart from this morning’s update to clients.

sentiment divergence

As a research firm (Investment Research Group) we are always monitoring third party data sources to be able to advice clients on their correlation and interpretation.  This is two unique data sets that are measuring the same thing in two different populations.  Individuals are getting more bearish while newsletter writers aren’t quite buying it.  This is creating a divergence between the individual and the newsletter writer, which as we always say – will resolve.  Obviously in hindsight we will see who is right and who is wrong.

To follow along with our research, visit www.stockbarometer.com – advising clients for 10 years!

Good morning Traders,

Here’s our update today from our morning article to clients:

Stock market timing

For 10 years we’ve been providing this chart to client – as it measures the potential and kinetic energy in the market.  As it moves lower, in a bull market, we see minimal traction to the downside.  So far, nothing has changed, this is a normal correction in an uptrend.  And once it is done, we will issue a buy signal to play an upside move.  We are getting close to a point where it would be like picking up a dime in front of a steam roller, so we would have to be cautious here because a sell off can initiate at any time and take the market down big here.

For more information, visit www.stockbarometer.com

Good morning Traders,
 
As promised, this morning we are releasing David Cohne’s Value Momentum Profit’s Hot
Stock of the week.  But before I do, let’s take a look at stock market sentiment.
 
As you recall in our last update, we were showing how rapidly traders were positioning for a move lower in the market, noting how bullish
that can be for the market on a contrarian basis.  But today, let’s take a look at the big picture.
 
Click here to access all our charts
 
One thing we like to prove with our research is that sentiment is sentiment.  No matter how you slice it, we can take entirely
different data series and show correlations.  Now these two are easy because they’re measuring similar things – with II measuring newsletter writers
(like us) and AAII measuring individual investors, like you.  But at the end of the day, we are all human and have emotions and those emotions lead to
our opinions and help cause market movements.
 
So based on this indicator, we are forming a lower high, which can be a sign of a top forming in the markets.  That being said,
there will be opportunities to profit periodically.  And here’s one.
 
Again, as promised, here is David Cohne’s Hot Stock Of The Week:
 
Click here to subscribe
 
AMCF is on the verge of a break out – you can see traders positioning ahead of the action and a break above the 2.2 level should send
this stock off to the races.  There are two ways to play stocks like this.  First is a break out – where you use a buy stop market order
above resistance to automatically place you in the trade when it does break.  Or if you are the investor type, you can start to position in it over
time, and be in it before it breaks.  Either way, this stock looks ready to break and David’s readers are on board. 
 
To view David’s current portfolio, you can subscribe for 4 weeks for only $1 – just use Discount Code VMP1 when you sign
up. 
 
 
Again – don’t forget to use DISCOUNT CODE VMP1 when signing up.
 
Regards,
 
Carl Adams, Publisher
 
PS – We are still giving out our 52 page presentation detailing the potential bubble forming in the stock market right
now.  Your subscription also includes a subscription to all our market timing research charts like the one shown today.  CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP  and don’t forget to USE DISCOUNT CODE VMP1
when signing up.

Bears gaining the upper hand…
3/12/2014 9:31:44 AM

Bears gaining the upper hand…

Equities fall fractionally…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought them for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Short SDRL March ’14 $35.00 puts for $1.50 per share

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then dove for the first half hour before rallying for the next hour.  That would mark the intraday high as the bears controlled trading action the rest of the session forcing all three major indexes to record fractional losses.  The NASDAQ-100 shifted to a trading state as did the Russell-2000 (IWM 118.06 -1.24) which lost one percent.  The other equity indexes remain in uptrend states.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 570.08 -3.14), the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 135.69 -0.42), the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.23 -0.15), the Bank Index (KBE 33.67 -0.25), and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 41.08 -0.15) all posted fractional losses.  All equity indexes closed above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes have a BULLISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.32 +0.28) posted a modest gain and closed just above its 50-DMA.  It remains below its 20- and 200-DMAs.  It has a BULLISH BIAS but has warned of a shift to a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume continued to be light with 643M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was heavy with 2.450B shares traded.

There were two economic reports of interest released:

  • Wholesale Inventories (Jan) rose +0.6% versus an expected +0.4% rise
  • Wholesale Inventories (Jan) came in at 3.974M

Both reports were released on half hour into the session.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 26.13 +0.16) closd fractionally higher and is still in the same trading range it has been stuck in for the last month.  Gold closed fractionally higher as well. 

Apple (AAPL 536.09 +5.17) added nearly one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 35.07 -0.27) posted a fractional loss.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th and bought shares at $35.43.  The stock is now trading ex-dividend for $0.98.

The U.S. dollar closed flat while the Euro fell one tenth of one percent. 

The yield for the 10-year fell a basis point to close at 2.77.  The price of a barrel of crude oil fell -$1.09 to close at $100.03.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.80 +0.60) rose four percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.78 +0.26) added most of two percent.  Both closed just above their respective 200-DMAs.

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 2:1 on the NYSE and by nearly 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 7:3 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.12 to close at 0.82.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.09 to close at 058.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday sets up an interesting opportunity.  As the world digests news of a slowing Chinese economy and sanctions that will be imposed on Russia for their military intervention in the Ukraine, the bulls are becoming nervous.  The bears have take advantage of the uncertainty but have not yet created any real technical damage yet.  In fact, the overbought conditions have now been worked off so it is possible for another rally to get started.  We are not yet certain what the outcome will be so we will remain with our long positions for now. 

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

The following chart pretty much sums it up for this market.  Click on the chart for more info.

stock market time to sell?

Put In Limit Orders To Sell Into
3/2/2014 9:44:12 PM

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions:   Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 23.5 or Better

                           Sell PRN at 48.5 or Better

                           Sell FBT at 83.8 or Better               

My service is typically a 10-position limit service.  What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account.  Example:  If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position.  So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.  Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things.  There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on.  That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash.  There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving.  That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets.  Does not happen often.

This is a 10-position account .  We now have 5-positions on.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Stock Market

 Look for a Trading market . Sell Rallies and Buy Breaks

We bought two Sock Funds just in the  nick of time.

Bought PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 46                        

Bought FBT ( Bio Tech ) at 75.6     

Let’s see if we can run with this for two more weeks.

Getting close here. Put in limit orders to sell into                          

Energy ?

We are out of the Oil Market at this time but we will be looking for a good entrance to get back in.  Oil might of bottomed here.  Starting to look a little closer here.

This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength.

 By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here.  Buy USL at the Market.

Just when you think the getting’s good.  They pull the rug out.

Metals ???

Has a bottom been established.  That is possible.  Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid.  This is no time for heroes, you go first.  That is the way I feel.  Not sure that I want to be that hero.  Bottom could be in, but no need to chase.  Buy the breaks

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down.  The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund

We might be there.  Buy TBT at the Market.  We know where interest rates are going now

We hung on too long.  Now we sit through a nasty correction.  Slowing economy driving rates lower again.  Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term.  Thick or Thin.

Currencies ?

            Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market.  We had a good outside week to the upside.  It could be time to move on this. 

A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan.  Might as well join the party.  We are now back in. 

Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here

Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation.  Our Dollar is getting hit.

Lots of volatility here.

Commodities ?

            Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week

Current Long Portfolio

Bought PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 46                         It closed at 48.2

Bought FBT ( Bio Tech ) at 75.6                                          It closed at 83.4

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43                                                        It closed at 44

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9                                      It closed at 68.8

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41                                                   It closed at 42.2

Current Short Portfolio:

None

Recently Closed Positions

If you’re receiving this, you can access all our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here.

If you cannot recall your username and password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

If you’re interested in continuing to receive our ETF Trades, please click here to go to our subscribe page.

Thank You

If you want to contact me send me an e-mail  bill@stockbarometer.com

Good morning traders,

Here is a chart from our morning alert to traders:

market sentiment

There are a lot of lines on this chart, but at the end of the day, it’s comparing two independent measures – equity money flow (black dotted line) and Investor Intelligence bulls minus bears (red line).  Our research has shown in more ways that this – that sentiment is sentiment.  These two independent data series are giving almost the exact same signal – and they have over time. 

We have this data as part of our research going back over a decade.  If you want access and want to see what we are saying on the markets here, visit www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for the Daily Stock Barometer.  We have been advising traders for the past 10 years and would love to have you as a client.  It’s only $1 for your first 4 weeks if you use DSB1 as the discount code.

Your Monday Portfolio
2/23/2014 4:26:03 PM
Print View
 

Hello Traders,

I hope you’re enjoying your weekend. There are no trades this week.

Reminder On How To Use The System:

1 Buy 5 positions on Monday’s Open.

2 Hold them through the weekend.

3 We have applied a money management system to the portfolio to prevent large losses using stops, so wait for the weekend email before doing anything.

4 Once the new email comes, make the necessary trades.

This system is an easy to follow stock portfolio plan. It was built for large gains and limited losses using a money management overlay.

Here are the Stocks for the week February 24th-February 28th

***  Visit www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for a free trial to Value Momentum Profits to see David’s full portfolio

(ONP) Orient Paper Inc

Our Hot Pick for this week is (ONP) Orient Paper Inc. The company is based out of Baoding City, China. The company produces and distributes paper products in China. Its year over year quarterly earnings growth is over 27% while exhibiting a Over the past year the company has increased its earnings and revenues while exhibiting a 3.7 trailing P/E, 0.35 Price/Sales and 0.30 Price/Book ratios.

The company has been on an uptrend since Mid October and crossed above its 200 Day Moving Average on October 16th. It has continued above the 200 Day Average while recently dipping below its 50 Day Moving Average. Fridays drop presents a great buying opportunity.

Happy Trading,

David Cohne

Gold is making a move, here’s what we see:

gold leading indicator

This chart shows our leading indicator for gold. 

We’ve just issued new recommendations on gold options – and the chart above represents one of 8 research charts that play into how we’re playing it.  To learn more about our Gold Options Trader Newsletter – visit http://www.stockbarometer.com/learnmore.aspx and scroll to the bottom of the page.

Dow falters but most equities move higher…

Gap up open sees almost immediate selling…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try. 

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then the Dow and S&P-500 began to dive steeply lower.  The NASDAQ-100 resisted the immediate move and even climbed during the second fifteen minutes before the bottom fell out.  The collapse for all three eased just after 11:00am.  The rally that followed was strong for the NASDAQ-100 and the S&P-500 but the Dow failed in its initial rally attempt and retested the morning low just after noon.  The bulls then stepped in and all three major indexes move higher in early afternoon trading then sideways most of the rest of the session.  The final half hour was dominated by buyers but the Dow lost a bit of ground in the final minutes.  This left the NASDAQ-100 with strong fractional gains.  The S&P-500 also posted fractional gains but the Dow closed modestly lower.  The Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.91 +0.85) soared more than two percent higher to lead the rally.  It regained its 20-Day Moving Average (DMA) so now all equity indexes we regularly monitor are above their 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.83 +0.52) also gained most of two percent and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.95 +0.02) posted a modest gain.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 116.62 +0.69), the Semiconductor Index (SOX 541.50 +3.36), and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 133.63 +0.75) all posted fractional gains.  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.56 +0.08) closed with a slender gain.  It remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It has a NEUTRAL BIAS but will shift to a BULLISH BIAS by the middle of the week.  It is in an uptrend state.  Trading volume was below average with 753M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was average with 2.017B shares traded. 

There were no economic reports of interest released.  Instead, markets reacted to earnings new with both Johnson and Johnson (JNJ 94.03 -1.03) and Travelers (TRV 85.00 -1.47) reported earnings misses.  IBM (IBM 188.43 -0.66) was scheduled to announce earnings after the close and was trading lower through the session.  After hours, IBM was crushed trading down more than seven dollars.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.70 +0.37) rose over one percent.

Apple (AAPL 549.07 +8.40) added more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell two tenths of one percent while the Euro rose one quarter of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year was unchanged at 2.83.  The price of a barrel of crude rose sixty-two cents to close at $94.99

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.87 +0.43) rose three percent and the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.34 +0.14) rose one percent.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners my nearly 2:1 on the NYSE and by 5:3 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 5:4 on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.06 to close at 0.83.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.04 to close at 0.57.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday followed Monday’s Martin Luther King Holiday closure.  While some equity indexes closed modestly lower, most closed higher, and the banks were significantly higher.  Clearly there are investors who still believe the banks will be more profitable as the Fed continues to taper and eventually raises interest rates.  We will remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Bulls reassert themselves…

Some equity indexes hit new highs…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then traded in mixed fashion in the first fifteen minutes with the NASDAQ-100 rising and the others falling.  They all moved lower in sync for the next fifteen minutes and then a session long rally began.  The move higher paused from about half way through the lunch hour until a bit after 2:00pm but otherwise the grind higher was incessant.  At the close, the Dow was at its high of the Day and posted a fractional gain.  The S&P-500 added more than one percent and the NASDAQ-100 added nearly two percent.  All three closed above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  In fact, all equity indexes we regularly monitor also closed above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs with the exception of the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.07 +0.14) which remains below its 20-DMA.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.24 +0.13) and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.88 +0.18) also posted fractional gains.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 539.61 +11.95) added more than two percent and was the standout performed.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 115.34 +1.40) and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 133.68 +1.76) both added more than one percent.  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 104.45 -0.48) posted a fractional loss and remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a nascent uptrend state.  Trading volume decreased to light with 647M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume decreased to average with 2.011B shares traded. 

There were five economic reports of interest released:

  • Retail Sales (Dec) rose +0.2% versus an expected flat reading
  • Retail Sales ex-auto (Dec) rose +0.7% versus an expected +0.4% rise
  • Export Prices ex-agriculture (Dec) rose +0.3% versus November’s +0.1% rise
  • Import Prices ex-oil (Dec) fell -0.1% versus November’s flat reading
  • Business Inventories (Nov) rose +0.4% versus an expected +0.3% rise

The first for reports were released an hour before the open while the last report was released a half hour into trading.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 22.10 -0.55) fell 2.5 percent.  The pullback we were looking for has started.  The question remains how far it will get.

Apple (AAPL 546.39 +10.66) rose two percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose two tenths of one percent while the Euro was essentially unchanged.

The yield for the 10-year rose four basis points to close at 2.87.  The price of a barrel of crude rose seventy-nine cents to close at $92.59

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.28 -1.00) fell most of eight percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 13.52 -1.53) fell ten percent.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 9:4 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by 4:1 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.01 to close at 0.70.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.09 to close at 0.52.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday was a huge counter by the bulls recapturing most or all of Monday’s losses in many equity indexes.   The Dow remains weaker than the other major indexes but is rarely a leader.  With the Semiconductor Index hitting a new high and the other leading indexes having huge comebacks, we are looking for the bulls to push equity indexes to new highs.  We will remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Biggest sell off of the year…

Still, the bottom has not yet dropped out…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened lower then rallied for an hour before the S&P-500 and Dow began selling off.  The NASDAQ-100 traded sideways for another half hour before joining the others.  Once the morning was over, price began to move lower at a faster pace and the sell off was steady and dramatic until the final fifteen minutes saw buyers emerge.  This left all three with losses between 1.2 – 1.5%.  All three closed below their 20-Day Moving Averages.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 113.94 -1.58) closed even with its 20-DMA while the Semiconductor Index (SOX 527.66 -6.04) and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 131.92 -1.85) were able to close above their respective 20-DMAs.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.11 -0.39) was also able to close above its 20-DMA but the Regional Bank Index (KRE 39.93 -0.45) was not so lucky and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.70 -0.33) closed even with its 20-DMA.  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 104.93 +0.52) rose fractionally.  It again closed above its 20- and 50-DMAs but remains below its 200-DMA.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume increased but remained below average with 730M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume increased to heavy with 2.292B shares traded. 

There was a single economic report of interest released:

  • Treasury Budget (Dec) came in at $53.2B versus an expected $44.0B

The report with two hours remaining in the session.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 22.65 +0.64) added nearly three percent.  It is now overbought and we are looking for a pullback.

Apple (AAPL 535.73 +2.79) rose fractionally.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell two tenths of one percent while the Euro rose less than one tenth of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year fell three basis points to close at 2.83.  The price of a barrel of crude fell ninety-two cents to close at $91.80

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 13.28 +1.14) rose nine percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.05 +0.96) rose nearly seven percent.  The VIX remains well below its 200-DMA while the VXN is just below its 200-DMA.    

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 3:1 on the NYSE and by nearly that much on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by 4:1 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.24 to close at 0.69.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.08 to close at 0.61.

Conclusion/Commentary

Monday was the strongest bearish day we have seen this year.  With that said, we are in the beginning of earnings season.  Two big banks are set to report on Tuesday.  If they have an earnings miss or guide below analyst estimates, then we could see the bear gain some strength.  Otherwise, this is a traditionally bullish time.  This follows on the 2013 pattern of having a nice bearish day that does not garner follow-through selling.  If that pattern changes, then we might exit bullish positions.  As of now, we will remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Friday the 13th…

Bad luck or not?

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 stock market timing

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

In cash as of November 25, 2013.

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then spent the first hour moving modestly lower before moving sideways for the next hour.  A modest rally then took place into early afternoon where the S&P-500 and Dow were able to overtake their open levels before reversing and falling dramatically to find new or challenge the early morning lows.  With less than two hours remaining, the bulls took control and forced prices higher but when the S&P-500 could not quite reach its intraday high the bears slammed equities down in the final half hour seeing the S&P-500 and NASDAQ-100 each post modest losses and the Dow post a modest gain.  This left the Dow and S&P-500 still below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) and the NASDAQ-100 just above its 20-DMA.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 110.20 +0.36) and the Dow Jones Transport Index (IYT 126.98 +0.48) were both able to log gains but the Semiconductor Index (SOX 505.52 -0.32) posted a loss.  Both the Bank Index (KBE 32.12 -0.13) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 39.07 -0.07) posted losses but the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.13 +0.02) was able to post a modest gain.  All equity indexes we regularly monitor remain below their respective 20-DMAs except the NASDAQ-100.  Longer term bonds (TLT 103.21 +0.50) posted a fractional gain but remains below its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  It has a BEARISH BIAS.  It remains in a trading state.  Trading volume fell to light with 606M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume fell to below average with 1.588B shares traded. 

There were two economic reports of interest released:

  • PPI (Nov) fell -0.1% as expected
  • Core PPI (Nov) rose +0.1% as expected

Both reports were released an hour before the open. 

Apple (AAPL 554.43 -6.11) fell one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose modestly while the Euro fell one tenth of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year fell a basis point to close at 2.87.  The price of a barrel of crude fell ninety cents to close at $96.60

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 15.76 +0.22) rose one percent and the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.98 -0.02) closed flat.  Both closed above their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 4:3 on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume narrowly led down volume on the NYSE and by 5:4 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.37 to close at 1.11.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.14 to close at 0.67.  It is quite odd for the put/call ratios to drop much when the market does so as well.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday saw a mixed close with the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 unable to hold onto opening gains.  With all equity indexes closing either side of flat, there is little to determine what direction the market really wants to take.  With that said, in all cases where a significant move lower has been threatened and did not materialize, equities have rallied since 2011, due to the influence of Quantitative Easing (QE).  We would expect more of the same until the Fed changes policies.

There is a Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the coming week where the Fed could announce a change to its QE program.  They may do nothing, or they may announce that the likelihood of them making a chance is imminent telegraphing their next move.  At this point, it is guesswork what they may do.  It is not even a certainty how the market will react to their beginning to taper since the amount of the taper will affect fixed income markets directly. 

We would have to come down on the side of the bulls at this time.  Until the music stops playing, it does not appear that market participants will worry to much about finding a seat.  We remain in cash for another session as it appears we will have a gap up open and the Fed will make statements on policies during the afternoon session on Wednesday.  After the policy statement is made, we will consider whether to enter a trade.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

The bears mostly maintain control…

Some equity indexes buck the trend…

Recommendation: Take no action.

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today! For a limited time, try our chat room for free. No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade. A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will.

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position. If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance. The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“. When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

In cash as of November 25, 2013.

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options). We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened mixed then attempted a rally in the first fifteen minutes before rolling over and beginning a move lower that would last into the lunch hour. The afternoon was spent reclaiming lost ground and all three major indexes ended lower. The Dow and S&P-500 closed below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs). The only other equity indexes that we regularly report on that closed lower was the Semiconductor Index (SOX 505.84 -4.33). The Russell-2000 (IWM 109.84 +0.24) was able to close back up to its 50-DMA and is the only equity index we report on that is not above its 50-DMA. The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 126.50 +0.20) posted a gain. The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.11 +0.00) closed flat. The Bank Index (KBE 32.25 +0.28) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 39.14 +0.26) were both able to close even with their 20-DMAs. Longer term bonds (TLT 102.71 -0.39) posted a fractional loss. It closed below its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs. It has a BEARISH BIAS. It remains in a trading state. Trading volume remained below average with 751M shares traded on the NYSE. On the NASDAQ, trading volume remained average with 1.865B shares traded.

There were seven economic reports of interest released:

Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 368K versus an expected 315K
Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.791M versus an expected 2.750M
Retail Sales (Nov) rose +0.7% versus an expected +0.6% rise
Retail Sales ex-auto (Nov) rose +0.4% versus an expected +0.3% rise
Import Prices (Nov) were flat (+0.0%)
Export Prices (Nov) rose +0.1%
Business Inventories (Oct) rose +0.7% versus an expected +0.3% rise
The first six reports were released an hour before the open. The last report came out a half hour into trading.

Apple (AAPL 560.54 -0.82) posted a modest loss. AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500.

The U.S. dollar rose four tenths of one percent while the Euro fell one quarter of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year rose four basis points to close at 2.88. The price of a barrel of crude rose six cents to close at $97.50.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 15.54 +0.12) rose one percent and the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 16.00 +0.12) rose one percent. Both closed above their respective 200-DMAs.

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 3:2 on the NYSE and by a five percent margin on the NASDAQ. Down volume led up volume 3:2 on the NYSE and by 5:4 on the NASDAQ. The index put/call ratio fell -0.36 to close at 0.74. The equity put/call ratio fell -0.09 to close at 0.53. It is quite odd for the put/call ratios to drop much when the market does so as well.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday saw the major indexes and the semiconductor index log losses but not so the other equity indexes we regularly follow. It would seem that equities may be on the verge of rallying yet again. Both the Dow and S&P-500 provided likely reversal signals. The relative strength of the NASDAQ-100 restored itself versus the Dow and S&P-500. Still, with that said, we are unwilling to commit to long positions until we see a clear sign of reversals to the upside. We remain in cash for another session.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio. You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Market movements can be defined by a variety of measures.  Here’s one measure of the market and a component of our forecast:

advancing and declining volume

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The key to any of the stock market timing strategies out there is figuring out what time frame you’re looking to exploit.   In trading, it’s all about timing.  In every time frame and to every trader, timing is key.  Knowing when to buy and when to sell is the difference between making money in the stock market, versus losing it all.

When I talk about time frame, I’m referring to what type of charts you look at and what type of data you analyze.  All my work is done on an end of day basis.  But to a day trader, a 10-minute chart will make more sense.  That’s not saying that I won’t fine tune my entry and exit on my EOD system by migrating from a daily chart to a 60 minute chart, and then ultimately a 10 minute chart as I narrow down the precise timing of my buy (and sell).

Can you counter the impact of timing in considering stock market timing strategies?  Again, it will depend on the timing of your system.  For example, an investor may take one position every week.  On bad timed trades, they will get stopped out.  However, on good timed trades, the invetor will profit.  Of course that suggest that you need an appropriate exit strategy, which is equally, if not a more important component of your stock market timing strategy.

Here’s some data to chew on:

Stock market timing strategies

The above chart shows the relationship between equity and index options volume.  Periodically it will reach extremes, which can suggest you’re close to a market reversal.  At peaks, the market is more vulnerable to a decline.  It’s not 100% accurate, nothing ever is – it’s just something to be on the look out for – especially when it reaches a peak.

Now incorporating something like the above into one of your stock market timing stragies, you could get defensive as this indicator reaches or moves off an extreme.

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